 "Pakistan may be arming its JF-17 jets with nuclear-capable cruise missiles")
Pakistan could reportedly be in the process of equipping its JF-17 fighter jets with a variant of the nuclear-capable Ra'ad air-launched cruise missile (ALCM).
An image has surfaced of a JF-17 Thunder Block II aircraft, which was involved in the rehearsals for the 2023 Pakistan Day Parade, carrying what is reported to be a Ra'ad ALCM, revealed a recent analysis by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), an American non-profit think tank.
Noting that analysing Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme is fraught with uncertainties due to "longstanding government secrecy", the analysis added that the image, captured by an aviation photographer in March 2023, was the first instance of such a configuration being observed in public.
What is Pakistan's Ra'ad missile and why does it matter?
The analysis describes Pakistan's Ra'ad-I (Hatf-8) ALCM, as well as the follow-on Ra'ad-II, as a "dual-capable" weapon.
Citing a 2017 US Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) report, the analysis explains that the Ra'ad missile is described as "conventional or nuclear", which it says is a term that normally describes a dual-capable system.
More From This Section
First tested in 2007, the Ra'ad ALCM remains Pakistan's only nuclear-capable air-launched cruise missile. An enhanced version of the nuclear-capable Ra'ad, the Ra'ad-II was first publicly unveiled in 2017.
What does the 2023 JF-17 image show?
The analysis explains that the Mirage III and Mirage V fighter bomber aircraft are believed to be the two platforms with a nuclear-delivery role within the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).
However, Pakistan has procured more than 130 JF-17 fighters, which are jointly produced with China, and plans to acquire even more in the future, in a bid to modernise the PAF and to retire its ageing Mirage III and V aircraft fleet.
Noting that several reports suggesting that Pakistan could incorporate the Ra'ad ALCM onto the JF-17 have emerged over the years, the analysis adds that little official information has been revealed about the status of this possible programme and whether the newer JF-17s will replace the Mirage III and Vs in the nuclear strike role.
However, the analysis notes that the image, captured by an aviation photographer in March 2023, has answered some of the lingering questions about the JF-17s possible new nuclear mission in Pakistani service.
The image purportedly shows a JF-17 Thunder Block II aircraft carrying what is reported to be a Ra'ad ALCM.
According to the analysis, FAS purchased the original image to try and ascertain which variant of the Ra'ad missile -- the original 350-kilometre (km) range Ra'ad-I or the extended-range (550-600 km) Ra'ad-II -- the JF-17 in the image is carrying.
FAS compared the missile in the image to other Ra'ad-I and Ra'ad-II missiles that were displayed in the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2024 Pakistan Day Parades.
According to the analysis, between 2017 and 2022, there were very few observable differences between the Ra'ad-I and Ra'ad-II missiles, with both weapons featuring a new air intake for their engine. The analysis adds that while Pakistan claimed that the Ra'ad-II had nearly double the range, the missile's external features did not clearly show how this was achieved.
While the Ra'ad-I and II appeared to have a similar design at first, the analysis notes that the latest version of the Ra'ad II, which was first displayed at the 2022 Pakistan Day Parade, sported a noticeably new tail fin configuration. This new variant supposedly has an even longer range of up to 600 km.
The 2022 Ra'ad-II variant had what the analysis described as an "x-shaped" tail fin configuration, in place of the "twin-tail" configuration seen in previous versions of the missile.
The analysis added that during the 2024 Pakistan Day Parade, the two distinct versions of the Ra'ad were showcased with their respective tail fin arrangements.
However, the analysis found that the fin arrangements of the missile photographed on the JF-17 appear to more closely match the 'twin-tail' configuration of the 350-km Ra'ad-I, instead of the newer 'x-shaped' tail of the Ra'ad-II. The analysis added that it was unlikely that an outdated version of the Ra'ad II, which also sports the 'twin-tail' configuration, would be used during a flight test intended to demonstrate state-of-the-art capabilities.
The overall conclusion of the analysis is that it is likely that Pakistan has made significant progress in equipping the JF-17 with the capability to either eventually supplement or possibly even replace the PAF's ageing Mirage III/V aircraft in the nuclear strike role.
The analysis adds that while it is evident that Pakistan has redesigned the Ra'ad-II ALCM, there is little confirmed information about the capabilities or purpose of the new variant. Moreover, while it is also unclear whether either of the Ra'ad missile variants has been operationally deployed, the analysis says that this may only be a matter of time.