Voters endorse Muizzu's pro-China stand in Maldives polls. Worry for India?

Preliminary results show that pro-China Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu's political party has won 70 seats, securing a 'super majority', in the nation's parliamentary elections

Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu's political party on Monday won 70 seats, securing a "super majority", in the archipelago nation's parliamentary elections, according to preliminary results that observers are describing as an endorsement of his pro-China foreign policy.   

Amid increased regional power competition, both India and China have been closely monitoring the polls. Official results for the parliamentary election in the Maldives, which enjoys a strategic location in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), are expected later this week. 

In Sunday's polls, Muizzu-led People's National Congress (PNC) won 70 out of the 93 seats in the 20th People's Majlis. PNC's coalition partners, the Maldives National Party (MNP) and Maldives Development Alliance (MDA), won one and two seats, respectively. According to reports, this result means that PNC will have the power to amend Maldives' Constitution.

Meanwhile, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which is led by former president Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, won only 15 seats this time, compared to the 65 seats it held in the previous Parliament, local media reported. Solih is widely considered to be a pro-India leader. 

Maldivian media described PNC's landslide win in Sunday's polls as a "super majority". In the 2019 polls, the then-ruling MDP had won a super majority, with 64 seats in Parliament. Meanwhile, the then-opposition, the Progressive Party of Maldives-PNC coalition, had won just eight. 

In Sunday's elections, while the PNC won a significant number of seats in Male, Addu, Fuvahmulah and Kulhudhuffushi, the Democrats, as well as the Adhaalath Party, failed to secure any seats at all. 

An endorsement of Muizzu's pro-China stance 

President Muizzu is known for his pro-Beijing leanings. He has also said that he wants to reduce India's influence in his country. The results of the Sunday polls are being seen as an endorsement of this policy. 

The polls are also crucial for 45-year-old Muizzu, given that just a few days ahead of the election, Opposition parties had demanded a probe into and impeachment of the president following a leaked report of his alleged corruption from 2018. Muizzu has dismissed the allegations against him. 

Since Muizzu assumed power in November last year, lawmakers have also blocked three of his nominees to the Cabinet. 

The election also comes amid deteriorating ties between the Maldives and India since Muizzu took office. During last year's presidential election too, Muizzu had campaigned on an anti-India stand. 

While Muizzu had India withdraw most of its military personnel stationed in the country, he travelled to China in January and met President Xi Jinping. The Maldives and China also signed a defence cooperation agreement and announced a number of infrastructure development projects. 

India has long considered the Maldives to be a key maritime neighbour in the IOR, and the nation occupies a special place in New Delhi's initiatives like Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) and the Neighbourhood First Policy.

For its part, China has been expanding its footprint in the IOR through its 'debt trap' diplomacy and 'String of Pearls' strategy, an initiative that aims to create a network of Chinese military and commercial facilities in countries of the IOR. In 2013, Maldives also joined China's Belt and Road initiative. 

Record-low voter turnout 

However, analysis that the poll results are an endorsement of Muizzu's pro-China agenda will have to be tempered by the fact that with about 75 per cent of the eligible voters casting their ballots according to the provisional results, Sunday's polls saw a record-low voter turnout.   

According to agency reports, while a total of 284,663 people were eligible to vote, only 215,860 exercised their right. 

Compared to this, the voter turnout in the 2019 parliamentary elections was 81.32 per cent, with 215,053 out of 264,446 eligible voters turning out to vote. 

Opposition MDP Chairperson Fayyaz Ismail congratulated the PNC for Sunday's success in a post on X: "Whilst today's result is disappointing this is a moment to reaffirm our commitment and work even closer with our communities." 

The former economic minister added, "MDP's MPs will be ready to work with the government for the betterment of our democratic values and to hold it accountable as a responsible opposition."   

MDP President and former foreign minister Abdulla Shahid said the party's MPs "will uphold the responsibility entrusted to you with utmost determination". 

Fraying tourism ties 

Whether or not the results are an endorsement of Muizzu's pro-Beijing stance, the tourism ties between India and the Maldives have already suffered. 

Only 34,847 Indian tourists visited the Maldives in the first quarter of this year, a 38 per cent decrease compared to the 56,208 in the same period last year, according to an Indian national daily. 

This figure is even lower than that of the first quarter of 2019, which saw 36,053 Indian tourists visiting the Maldives. 

After being the top source market for the Maldives post-Covid-19 from 2021 to 2023, India's numbers have started declining this year, coinciding with Muizzu's 'India Out' campaign and the subsequent 'Boycott Maldives' trend among Indians. 

However, cheaper alternatives and ease of visa access to countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia are also likely factors driving Indian tourism away from the Maldives. 

Meanwhile, Chinese tourists, who were the top inbound tourists to the Maldives before Covid, have reclaimed that title. 


(With agency inputs)