Rainfall deficit wider and outcomes worsening: CRISIL's DRIP Index

Six kharif crops at risk

The all-India cumulative rainfall stood at -11 per cent of long period average (LPA) on September 5, well below the normal (±4 per cent of LPA), and worse than -9 per cent of LPA a week back.   The deficit has widened the most in northeast (-18 per cent of LPA on September 5 vs -16 per cent a week ago), central India (-12 per cent vs -10 per cent) and northwest (-1 per cent vs 3 per cent). The southern peninsula is seeing moderating, but huge deficit (-12 per cent vs -17 per cent). 

Among major kharif-producing states, the deficit is significant in Jharkhand (-36 per cent of LPA on September 5), Bihar (-27 per cent) and Uttar Pradesh (-20 per cent). 
 

Some states are treading the fine line between normal (within 19 per cent of LPA) and deficit. These include Karnataka (-19 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (-19 per cent), Odisha (-17 per cent), and Maharashtra (-13 per cent). 

The impact of rains on states and crops can be assessed using CRISIL’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter — or DRIP — index. It factors in the cumulative impact of rains as well as irrigation cover. Higher the CRISIL DRIP score, more adverse is the impact of deficient rains.  The latest DRIP scores (based on disaggregated data available up to August 30) are the worst for tur, followed by soybean, bajra, jowar, maize, and rice. For these crops, their scores are much above their five year averages. 

Among states, DRIP is the worst for Jharkhand, followed by Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.  These states are among the major producers of certain pulses, coarse cereals, and oilseeds.

 These states together account for 72 per cent of tur output and have under 5 per cent of their area under irrigation on average.  This kharif season, sowing has been the weakest for tur (-2.6 per cent on-year as on September 1), followed by jowar (-1.5 per cent), bajra (0.4 per cent), and soybean (1.2 per cent). In contrast, sowing picked up for rice (14.3 per cent), though this may have been due to re-sowing after excess rains in northwest India.  Risk to rains is coming from El Niño, which was last seen in 2015, when monsoon was 14 per cent below LPA.  

The India Meteorological Department expects rains to partially recover in September. Rains in September will be critical not only for kharif output but also for rabi that depends on groundwater replenishment during monsoon. 

The extent of catch-up will determine the reduction in crop vulnerabilities arising from insufficient rains so far, especially in rain-dependent states. We will continue assessing the granular impact of rainfall through our DRIP scores.