The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is currently engaged in its three-day deliberations, beginning December 4, to assess and determine the country’s key lending rates. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is set to announce the MPC's decision on Friday, December 6, at 10 am.
RBI’s recent Monetary Policy decisions
At its last meeting in October 2024, the RBI chose to maintain the repo rate at 6.5 per cent, marking a continuation of its cautious approach to Monetary Policy. This upcoming review, however, is expected to be scrutinised closely due to various macroeconomic indicators, including India's recent GDP growth data and inflation figures.
Key areas: Inflation, growth outlook, and interest rates
The RBI’s MPC is expected to discuss several crucial factors, including interest rates, inflation, economic growth projections, and the impact of global oil prices. A decision on the repo rate will be made after cautiously assessing these factors in the context of India’s economic health.
The December meeting follows a period of challenging economic conditions, with India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter recording a seven-quarter low of just 5.4 per cent. Additionally, October’s inflation rate surged to 6.2 per cent, surpassing the RBI’s target range of 2-6 per cent. These economic pressures are likely to influence the MPC’s policy stance.
RBI Monetary Policy: Date and time
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The RBI Monetary Policy review will take place between December 4 and December 6, with the official announcement slated for Friday, December 6, at 10 am. Following the announcement, Governor Shaktikanta Das will hold a press conference to elaborate on the MPC’s recommendations and rationale behind their policy choices.
RBI MPC: Where to watch live announcement
The live-streamed announcement will be available on multiple platforms. Viewers can tune in to the Business Standard YouTube channel for the live broadcast. Additionally, the RBI’s official social media accounts on Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and YouTube will also stream the event. The post-announcement press conference will be available live on these platforms as well.
You can also follow live updates of Governor Das’s speech on Business Standard here.
Monetary Policy expectations: Will RBI cut repo rate?
With the economy facing significant challenges, market experts are eager to see if the RBI will cut the repo rate to stimulate growth. Despite weaker-than-expected GDP performance, analysts, including 21 out of 25 surveyed by Bloomberg, predict the MPC will keep the status quo for the eleventh consecutive meeting. This suggests the repo rate will likely remain unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
“Despite the GDP growth print being significantly weaker than RBI’s expectations, we think primacy of inflation will prevail for now,” said Barclay’s in its analysis.
Additionally, the MPC is expected to revise its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year, likely lowering the initial projection of 7.2 per cent, given the slower-than-anticipated growth trends.
RBI’s October 2024 Monetary Policy highlights
At its October meeting, the MPC maintained the repo rate at 6.5 per cent and shifted its policy stance to neutral, which could signal future rate cuts depending on economic conditions. The standing deposit facility rate remains at 6.25 per cent, while the marginal standing facility rate stands at 6.75 per cent.
Upcoming RBI Monetary Policy meetings
The next RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled from February 5-7, 2025, as part of the FY 2024-25 schedule. The RBI conducts six bi-monthly meetings annually, with the previous reviews taking place in April, June, August, and October of this fiscal year.