9 million students to study abroad by 2030; India, China's lead to continue

In 2019, nearly six million students were studying abroad, and this number is projected to rise to over nine million by 2030, according to new data from Navitas Australia, an educational services firm. This growth, shared at the Australian International Education Conference (AIEC) in October 2024, points at a steady 4% increase expected over the next several years.

 

India and China continue to lead the way in sending students overseas, with Nigeria also showing considerable numbers. Regionally, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are forecast to see the fastest growth in outbound student mobility.

 

At the Australian International Education Conference (AIEC) 2024, a presentation titled “Global student flows: understanding the ‘next’ wave in international education” provided data-driven forecasts on international student flows for the decade ahead. Led by Gabrielle Rolan, pro vice chancellor at the University of South Australia, the presentation featured Navitas executives Jonathan Chew and Ethan Fogarty, who discussed trends grounded in data from Oxford Economics and Unesco.

 

Chew, Navitas’s chief insights officer, said, “We’re seeing shifting patterns that could reshape the face of international education.”

 

Could India surpass China?

 

With Indian demand for studying abroad showing high growth, there’s a growing question: will India overtake China as the leading source of international students? Fogarty, Navitas’s senior manager of government relations, laid out the factors that could influence this shift. “India’s population has surpassed China's, and its young adult demographic is also expanding,” he explained. “These elements alone support an upward trend in outbound mobility.”

 

However, India still faces hurdles in matching China’s outbound student numbers. Currently, India’s tertiary enrolment ratio, GDP per capita, and outbound study mobility ratio fall below China’s. While China’s more robust economy and established educational pathways keep it in the lead, its outlook remains unpredictable. Economic uncertainty and deteriorating job prospects in China could lead to higher numbers of students choosing to study abroad, according to Navitas.

 

“Poor employment prospects can actually increase students’ interest in overseas study,” Fogarty added.

 

Should India outpace China by 2030, it would likely be due to more attractive opportunities abroad for Indian students, particularly in areas like post-study work and immigration pathways.

 

Currently, however, achieving parity with China would require substantial economic and educational shifts within India. "For example, to rival China’s outbound student numbers, India’s GDP per capita would need to leap from $6,800 in 2019 to $35,000 by 2030. Similarly, tertiary enrolment would have to increase from 28.4% to 58%, and the outbound student mobility rate would need to double," Fogarty explained.

 

“The real tipping point for Indian students could come with more appealing ‘pull’ factors,” Fogarty noted, adding that better job prospects and immigration pathways could sway the trend.

 

Waning interest among Indians?

 

According to Navitas, changes in immigration policies in major study destinations like Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US are increasingly attracting academically driven students who are less sensitive to tuition costs. For example, the Australian government’s recent adjustments have led to a shift in the type of students interested in studying in the country.

 

"This shift doesn’t imply waning interest in foreign qualifications from emerging markets, which is expected to continue growing. Instead, transnational education models, including branch campuses, exchange programmes, and flexible degree formats, are likely to gain traction. We’ll see more students pursuing globally recognised degrees without necessarily having to study entirely abroad,” said Navitas' Chew.

 

Indian students expected to spend $70 billion on foreign education

 

Indian students are projected to spend a staggering $70 billion on international education by 2025, as reported in University Living’s "Beyond Beds and Boundaries: Indian Student Mobility Report." This anticipated expenditure underscores India’s burgeoning interest in overseas study, reflecting a shift towards prioritising global qualifications.

 

In the UK alone, Indian students spent an estimated $5.9 billion, with around 132,000 students currently studying there. According to University Living, a global housing marketplace, this spending breaks down into three main areas:

 

$3.4 billion on tuition and fees

$1.3 billion on housing expenses

$1.2 billion on other living expenditures

 

“Globally, tertiary education enrolment has been steadily increasing. In 2023, Indian and Chinese students together accounted for nearly 33% of the total international student population,” noted University Living, highlighting the considerable influence of these two nations on global student mobility trends.