Canada-India diplomatic row impact on immigration, visas, students: Decoded

As relations between India and Canada hit a low, many Indians are left wondering how the diplomatic fallout will affect immigration, work, and student visas. Experts believe the ongoing diplomatic row is unlikely to directly influence visa policies. “It’s important to understand that the current dispute between India and Canada has almost no bearing on immigration issues,” said Russell A Stamets, Partner at Circle of Counsels. “In geopolitical terms, Canada has been clear about keeping these matters separate.”

Background of the diplomatic dispute

Tensions between the two countries have been simmering since last year when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused the Indian government of involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a pro-Khalistan leader, on Canadian soil. India strongly denied the accusations, leading to a tit-for-tat diplomatic fallout.

The latest row began on Monday when India’s Ministry of External Affairs said it had received “diplomatic communication” from Canada indicating that Indian diplomats were being considered “persons of interest” in relation to an investigation in the North American country.

The frosty ties have impacted diplomatic operations, with both countries reducing staff at their respective high commissions.

Canada - a home away from home

For many Indians, Canada is a home away from home. The National Foundation for American Policy in a report published earlier this year noted that between 2013 and 2023, Indians immigrating to Canada rose from 32,828 to 1,39,715, an increase of 326 per cent. Additionally, Indians enrolling in Canadian universities increased by more than 5,800 per cent in the last two decades — from 2,181 in 2000 to 128,928 in 2021.

But how will the frosty ties impact Indians?

Though there’s no official change in immigration policies, Indians applying for visas are already facing delays due to the reduced number of Canadian diplomats in India. “The reduction in diplomatic staff means longer wait times for visa processing, and this will mostly affect Indians. The current dispute will help Canada by reducing the volume of visa applications they have to handle, but it hurts individuals here in India who are looking to travel,” Ajay Sharma, an immigration consultant and the founder of Abhinav Immigration Services said.

Stamets echoed the point, stating that the situation is likely to affect the processing of both visitor and work visas. “The backlog will only get worse. But again, this delay is administrative, not a direct result of the diplomatic row.”

Should Indian students in Canada be worried?

For Indian students already studying in Canada, there’s little reason to be concerned about their status. Canadian universities are well-known for supporting international students, including Indians, even during challenging times. “Canadian institutions have a robust framework in place for international student welfare,” said Abhijit Zaveri, Founder and Director of Career Mosaic. “Concerns about discrimination or workplace challenges due to the diplomatic row are premature.”

However, the delays in visa processing will likely affect new applicants. “Indian students looking to start their courses in upcoming terms might face delays due to the reduced consular staff,” Sharma pointed out. He also highlighted that the current situation could hurt families who plan to visit students for special occasions.

Will workplace discrimination rise due to diplomatic tensions?

Although diplomatic tensions might suggest the possibility of discrimination, experts say that’s not a real concern yet. Aritra Ghosal, Founder and Director of OneStep Global, explained, "Multinational companies operating in Canada typically focus on inclusivity and diversity, which remain their priorities regardless of political disputes. Smaller businesses might react differently, but for now, it’s too early to say how the row will play out in workplaces."

Ghosal stressed that the professional environment in Canada, especially in larger firms, remains welcoming. “Workplaces are more likely to be driven by merit, not nationality.”

Impact on permanent residency and long-term plans

For Indians in Canada holding work permits or applying for permanent residency (PR), the diplomatic row seems to pose no immediate threat. However, with fewer staff at Indian consulates, processing times for PR applications and other visa renewals may take longer.

“The dispute is unlikely to affect PR or citizenship applications directly, but those who are just starting their application process might experience delays,” Sharma noted. “People already holding PR or work visas shouldn’t worry unless they plan to travel back to India soon.”

Is immigration to Canada slowing down?

Despite the frosty ties, Canada’s need for skilled labour and economic contributions from international students continues. In 2022 alone, international students contributed around $37.3 billion to Canada’s economy. “The current diplomatic row will not be a long-term issue for immigration. Both countries have a lot to gain from maintaining good relations,” Darshan Maharaja, a Canada-based immigration analyst said.

Zaveri noted that while there’s talk of reducing the number of study permits issued in 2025, the reasons are tied to economic factors than political ones. “Canada had already announced a reduction in the intake of international students, but this was planned before the current tensions arose.”

Canada elections looming

Some experts believe that the diplomatic row might have political motivations. Maharaja explained, “There’s speculation that the Trudeau government’s actions are aimed at gaining domestic support ahead of upcoming elections. Once the elections are over, we could see efforts to repair relations with India.”

While the future of diplomatic relations remains uncertain, for now, the experts agree that Indians in Canada or those planning to immigrate have little to fear regarding immediate policy changes. However, delays in visa processing are expected to continue until both countries restore diplomatic staffing levels.