 "Trump is back! Impact on H-1B, EB-5 visas, & green card aspirations decoded")
Donald Trump has done it again, pulling off a historic re-election to the US Presidency against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. In his victory speech on November 6 in Florida, Trump said: “Immigrants are welcome but they have to come in legally.”
But what does Trump’s win mean for Indians, particularly those looking to make their mark in America?
The Republican leader is known to be tough on immigration; in fact, much of his campaign centred around the increase in illegal immigration under the Biden-Harris administration. His previous term saw a raft of immigration policies that affected skilled professionals and students, particularly those holding H-1B, F-1, and H-4 visas. However, Ajay Sharma, an immigration expert and founder of Abhinav Immigration Services, believes Trump’s return could lead to fresh opportunities for Indians seeking legal immigration routes.
“So let us get into the basics,” Sharma explained. “Trump’s platform focused on deporting illegal migrants, and with an estimated 10 million undocumented people in the US, his actions could open doors for skilled migrants. Indians, who largely use legal routes like the H-1B for work or F-1 for study, may find new opportunities in the US if the administration prioritises skilled migration over family-based immigration.”
Sharma pointed out that Trump had in his first term hinted at introducing a points-based system similar to Canada and Australia. “If he revives this approach, it could pave the way for skilled Indian migrants. Right now, the US system is family-based, which Trump believes contributes less economically compared to skilled migrants,” he said.
However, he also cautions that any such changes would take time. “Nothing will happen overnight. The inauguration is in January, and it could take another three to six months before these policies are implemented,” he said.
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Impact on visas and work permits: What lies ahead?
Indian professionals and students in the US often rely on visa categories like the H-1B, F-1, and H-4 (for spouses), and Trump’s win could bring both new challenges and opportunities.
“Restrictive immigration policies could complicate visa statuses for highly skilled Indians, exposing them to an arbitrary lottery system beyond their control. For Indian students, especially for those in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields, there may be concerns over restrictions on Optional Practical Training (OPT), which allows students to work legally for up to a year after they graduate. Such changes could severely impact students pursuing finance or banking internships, too,” said Parth Vakil, founding partner of Ek.indUS.
Vakil added that the quickest route to avoid these uncertainties is through the EB-5 Immigrant Investor programme. “Permanent residency is the only way to negate these risks. The EB-5 offers a fast track for those who can make the necessary investment,” he said.
H-1B visa changes: Will it affect Indian professionals?
Trump’s win could mean stricter H-1B regulations, as he has previously pushed to prioritise American workers. According to Vakil, “A stricter policy could increase competition, impacting Indian tech professionals who depend on H-1B renewals and applications.”
Sharma agreed, adding that Trump's emphasis on merit-based immigration could benefit skilled Indian workers but warned of potential new restrictions on entry requirements.
Student visas and Green Card prospects: Will pathways change?
Indian students may also face tighter visa controls, Vakil warned, especially with potential restrictions on F-1 (education) visas and changes to the OPT work permit.
During the Trump administration, there were discussions about imposing new restrictions on OPT, particularly in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and rising unemployment rates. However, these proposed changes were not implemented, and the OPT program remained unchanged during that period.
Trump’s previous administration indicated support for Green Card pathways for F-1 holders, a policy move that might make it easier for skilled Indian graduates to work in the U.S. after their studies.
Abhijit Zaveri, founder and director of Career Mosaic, pointed out that a relaxed Green Card policy for F-1 students would be beneficial, especially for those in advanced STEM fields. “It could make transitioning into the American workforce smoother,” he said.
Broader implications for Indian immigrants: What’s at stake?
For the estimated 5.5 million-strong Indian-American community and Indians aspiring for the American dream, Trump’s return holds broader implications.
Manoj Dharmani, CEO of DUDigital Global Ltd, said, “For Indian nationals, this could mean continued opportunities in fields like technology and engineering, though with more rigorous documentation requirements. H-1B wage requirements may see adjustments, and new qualification criteria might emerge across visa categories.”
Dharmani suggested staying updated through official channels to navigate the potential policy changes. “Strategic US-India relations could maintain pathways for skilled workers, but specific programs, such as the diversity visa, may see modifications towards merit-based criteria.”
Dreamers and DACA: A lingering uncertainty
Trump’s stance on undocumented migrants, particularly the so-called Dreamers under Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), which allowed minors who entered the US as undocumented immigrants to stay without fear of deportation, has stirred concern. Dharmani warned that Trump’s win might create a “less stable outlook” for young undocumented Indians, as he has consistently advocated for ending DACA.
In September 2017, his administration announced plans to end the programme, arguing it was an overreach of executive authority. However, this decision faced legal challenges, and in June 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that the administration's attempt to rescind DACA was procedurally improper, thereby keeping the programme in place. In his 2024 campaign, Trump reiterated his intention to end DACA, emphasising a strict approach to immigration enforcement. He proposed mass deportations and the termination of programs like DACA, asserting that no pathway to citizenship should be available for undocumented individuals, including Dreamers.
Trade relations and US-India partnership: A stronger bond?
Trump’s affinity for India and personal rapport with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi could benefit US-India trade relations. "Trump’s pro-business policies are expected to strengthen this alliance, particularly in sectors critical to digital and sustainable development," said Ramesh Alluri Reddy, CEO of TeamLease Degree Apprenticeship.
“The demand for Indian talent, particularly in Global Capability Centres (GCCs), could create a surge in job opportunities in the US. As we’ve seen, US trade with India grew robustly during Trump’s previous term, reflecting a potential for increased trade,” Reddy added.
Trade data from the past decade shows a strong connection: US exports to India rose by 84% from $22.1 billion in 2012 to $39.8 billion in 2021, while imports from India surged by around 81% from $40.5 billion to $73.3 billion over the same period.
"The recent announcement by the US Mission to India to add 250,000 visa appointments for Indian travellers, including tourists, skilled workers, and students, highlights the value the United States places on the contributions of Indians. This initiative will foster the exchange of ideas and knowledge, ultimately enhancing our education system and benefiting future generations," said Amit Baveja, Managing Director of Burlington English India & Southeast Asia.
Aritra Ghosal, founder and director of OneStep Global, pointed out that given US concerns regarding security and apprehensions related to China, South Asia may emerge as a prominent destination for educational pursuits.
Legal complications: What concerns remain?
The Indian-American community has expressed fears over Trump’s alleged support for the right-wing policy document titled ‘Project 2025’, which could entail mass deportations and denaturalisation. Russell A Stamets, partner at Circle of Counsels, told Business Standard, “Indians should fear a Trump presidency on many levels. Trump has shown contempt for non-white immigrants, and his mass deportation plan could complicate the lives of many Indians.”
Stamets pointed to Trump’s plans to end birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants as a “serious concern” for the South Asian community, calling the proposal a significant threat to the community’s stability.
Earlier in the day, former Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor said that Trump is strongly anti-immigration, and that might affect and tighten the number of possibilities, not just for H1-B visa seekers, but also for family reunions of those who have gone there, stayed on, become permanent residents, and want to get their families to join them.
Trump’s pro-business outlook: Could it favour Indian investors?
The EB-5 visa programme, popular among Indian investors, is likely to retain its appeal under Trump’s pro-business stance.
“The EB-5 programme has consistently provided a stable route for investors seeking US residency. Indian investors can continue to use this to mitigate the uncertainties tied to H-1B applications,” said Piyush Gupta, vice president of CanAm Enterprises.
Gupta added that any continued stability in the EB-5 programme would be welcomed, especially given the demand among Indians looking for long-term investment opportunities in the US.
Will Trump change the H-1B ballot system?
Another potential area of change is the H-1B ballot system. Trump has previously advocated for replacing the lottery system with a merit-based selection process, which would favour candidates with advanced skills and higher wages.
Varun Singh, managing director of XIPHIAS Immigration, noted that while this could benefit highly skilled Indians, recent graduates might struggle to meet the new merit-based thresholds.
“Trump’s stance on merit-based selection aligns with his pro-business outlook, potentially making the H-1B system more competitive for skilled Indians,” Singh said. However, he added that balancing these slots against the demand for high-skilled roles would remain essential.
In his previous term, Trump, through his executive order E.O.13788 “Buy American and Hire American” increased restrictions on H-1B visas.
This time, too, Trump plans to tighten immigration rules and reduce H-1B visas, a report by Prabhudas Lilladher noted. It also pointed out how under Trump, the number of approvals for the much-sought after visa fell in 2017-18 but recovered in 2019-20.