 "How would US immigration policy impact you if Trump is re-elected in 2024")
If Donald Trump is re-elected as the president of the United States in 2024, immigrants might encounter increased scrutiny in immigration applications, potential changes to housing eligibility based on immigration status, and stricter enforcement on visa regulations that could impact the ability to work or reunite with family. Trump, who initially rose to the presidency on a platform focused on immigration, aims to leverage this issue for a second term and has pledged to implement mass deportations of millions of undocumented migrants if reelected.
A key promise of his potential second term is to execute the largest domestic deportation in US history, despite having never exceeded 350,000 deportations during his first term, according to the Associated Press. Additionally, he plans to review refugee programmes and end birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
1. Stricter Immigration Rules
If Trump wins a second term, his immigration policies could make it less appealing for international students to come to the U.S. They might choose to study in other countries instead. This shift could occur because of stricter visa rules and limits on work opportunities after graduation. Trump has historically favored stricter immigration controls. If he continues this approach, it could mean tougher requirements for visas and green cards. For instance, if you’re a student from another country wanting to study in the U.S., the process to obtain a student visa might become more complicated, requiring more documentation or higher fees.
One specific area of concern is Optional Practical Training (OPT), which allows international students to work in the U.S. for up to 12 months after graduation. Under the Obama administration, students in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) fields could extend this period by an additional 24 months. Trump’s administration considered restricting this program, which would limit job opportunities for international students.Trump’s senior adviser, Stephen Miller, has been a strong proponent of stricter immigration policies. Although some of his proposals, like eliminating OPT for STEM graduates, were blocked by more business-oriented members of Trump’s team, Miller’s influence suggests a continuation of aggressive immigration reforms if Trump is re-elected.
Miller previously drafted legislation that would significantly change immigration rules, such as requiring international students to gain extensive work experience abroad before being eligible for H-1B visas (which are used by employers to hire foreign workers). For example, someone with a master’s degree would need 10 years of experience in their home country before they could work in the U.S.
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Instead of ending OPT, Trump’s administration could impose additional requirements that make it difficult for international students and employers to use the program effectively. This means that while OPT would still exist, the rules could be so complicated or restrictive that many students and employers find it impractical.
The strategy mirrors what was done with H-1B visas, which are used for hiring skilled foreign workers. During Trump’s first term, the administration implemented measures that made it harder for employers to get H-1B visas. These measures included increasing the rate of visa denials, raising application costs, and creating uncertainty in the process.
If similar strategies were applied to OPT, the added burdens could make it challenging for students to secure jobs in their fields after graduation. Employers might also hesitate to hire international students due to the complexity and costs associated with these new requirements.
2. Increased Deportations
There might be a stronger focus on deporting individuals who are in the U.S. illegally. For example, if someone is living and working in the U.S. without proper documentation, they could face a greater risk of being deported if the administration increases enforcement actions.
3. Changes to Asylum Processes
Trump's administration previously aimed to limit asylum claims. If he reintroduces similar policies, it could become harder for individuals fleeing persecution to seek refuge in the U.S. For example, a person from a war-torn country may find it more challenging to apply for asylum due to stricter eligibility criteria or longer processing times.
4. Impact on Employment
Employers might have to adapt to new rules regarding hiring foreign workers. If the policy restricts certain work visas, businesses that rely on foreign talent (like tech companies or agriculture) may struggle to fill positions. For instance, a tech company might find it harder to hire skilled workers from abroad, which could slow down their projects.
" For those on H1B visas, we could see new restrictions, making it harder for employers to hire foreign talent. Under Trump's first term, HIV denial rates for new and continuing applications went up. There is a strong change we will see more of the same, possibly even higher minimum wages required for H1B workers, which could push companies to take those jobs outside the US. Secondly, for those in the hospitality, construction or agriculture sectors, expect changes with the H2 A and H2 B visas. These visas might be limited, which could impact industries that rely on seasonal visas, " said immigration attorney Abhisha Parikh.
5. Family Reunification Delays
If the immigration policy limits family-based immigration, it could take longer for U.S. citizens and permanent residents to bring their family members to the U.S. For example, if a U.S. citizen wants to bring a spouse from another country, they may face longer wait times or more hurdles to complete the process.
"If you live with someone who is not a US citizen, you could face challenges qualifying for federal housing subsidies. Moreover states may need to share more information with federal authorities, which could impact things like drivers licences. Legal immigration could also take a hit as Trump has discussed ending birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants and he has made it clear that he wants stricter visa policies for both family reunification and employment-based immigration," added Parikh.
While Kamala Harris seeks reforms to simplify legal immigration pathways while addressing humanitarian needs and family reunification, Trump advocates for reducing legal immigration levels and implementing merit-based systems, emphasizing stricter controls and enhanced vetting for certain immigrant groups. Trump also supports limiting family-based immigration, which he refers to as “chain migration" and plans to eliminate the diversity visa lottery and implement merit-based systems to give preference to individuals who possess skills aligning with U.S. economic needs.
" Harris’s approach to simplifying legal immigration pathways and maintaining work visas could be favourable for Indian IT companies that rely heavily on the H-1B visa program to place skilled Indian professionals in the U.S. A Trump-led government may increase visa denials and reduce opportunities for family-based immigration, impacting Indian nationals and businesses," said Poorvi Chothani, Managing Partner, LawQuest.