Trump win impact: Will H-1B workers, STEM grads get green cards faster?

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has brought renewed focus on US immigration policy, especially the H-1B visa programme that many skilled Indian workers rely on to build careers in America. Dr Mukesh Aghi, president and CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF), recently discussed with Business Today TV the potential immigration direction under Trump’s leadership, saying, “Immigration has been a big election issue,” with Trump expected to tackle the estimated 16 million undocumented individuals in the US.

 

Aghi suggested that Trump’s administration may favour faster residency pathways for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) graduates with advanced degrees through the H-1B visa route. “A lot of skilled and (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) graduates in masters and PhD will get a quicker residency permit,” Aghi said. 

 

He said future policies could allow more H-1B visa holders to directly qualify for green cards.

 

Since Trump’s recent election win, experts have debated his approach to immigration. Tesla CEO Elon Musk voiced support for Trump, saying, “he will fix green card woes of skilled professionals.” Abhijit Zaveri, founder and director of Career Mosaic, said, “Trump has previously indicated support for a more accessible Green Card pathway for F1 student visa holders, which could translate into a more relaxed immigration policy, particularly for highly skilled graduates.” 

 

"Such changes could provide an invaluable boost for Indians pursuing advanced degrees in the US, making it easier to transition into the American workforce,” Zaveri added. 

 

What is the H-1B visa programme?

 

The H-1B visa programme permits US employers to hire skilled foreign workers in specialised fields that demand specific qualifications. According to the US Department of Labour, the visa is intended to support employers unable to find such skills in the local workforce. Each financial year, the government caps new H-1B visas at 65,000, with an additional 20,000 reserved for those holding a US master’s degree or higher. Workers at educational institutions, non-profits, or research organisations are not subject to this cap.

 

Indians make up the majority of H-1B visa holders, a trend confirmed by US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) data. In financial year 2023, Indians received 72.3% (2.79 lakh) of the total 3.86 lakh H-1B approvals. In contrast, Chinese workers held 11.7%. The programme is heavily tilted towards computer-related roles, which accounted for 65% of H-1B visas in 2023, followed by architecture, engineering, and surveying at 9.5%, and education at 6%. Median salaries for H-1B holders in 2023 stood at $118,000.

 

Changes to H-1B policy under Trump

 

Under Trump’s first term, the H-1B visa programme came under scrutiny, as he raised concerns that it disadvantaged American workers. Trump’s administration advocated for higher minimum wages for H-1B visa holders, complicating access for many Indian tech professionals. With Trump’s re-election, experts fear further restrictions could emerge, affecting Indians who wish to migrate to the US for employment.

 

“Trump’s win could renew his focus on stricter H-1B visa regulations, aiming to prioritise American workers,” Varun Singh, managing director at XIPHIAS Immigration, noted. “This could impact Indian tech professionals, as policies might tighten on hiring and renewals, potentially increasing competition for these coveted visas.”

 

Why Indians seek a green card

 

Many Indians view a US green card as essential for career growth, security, and stability in America. The reasons are multi-faceted:

 

Career growth and job security: A green card offers permanent work rights, eliminating visa renewal worries. Long-term stability benefits professionals in fields like IT, engineering, and healthcare.

High demand for skilled workers: The US constantly seeks tech and healthcare talent, with green card holders better positioned to take advantage of favourable work conditions and pay.

Educational opportunities for children: Green card holders’ children access US schools, scholarships, and lower college tuition.  Pathway to citizenship: A green card is a step towards US citizenship, granting full rights, including voting and sponsoring family members.

Quality of life and stability: Many perceive the US as offering a high standard of living, with good healthcare and public services.

Avoiding visa uncertainty: The H-1B visa’s annual cap and renewal requirements create uncertainty. A green card removes these barriers, offering Indians greater freedom to change jobs or plan their future.

 

The green card backlog for Indians

 

The demand for US green cards remains high among Indians, yet a substantial backlog and strict annual caps slow progress. Over a million Indians currently await green cards, some facing up to 50-year waits due to limits per country. The USCIS offers just 140,000 employment-based green cards in 2024, while demand far exceeds this quota.

 

In 2022, the US Department of Homeland Security estimated that 12.9 million individuals held green cards, with 9.2 million eligible for citizenship. Although admissions fell during Covid-19, numbers have since rebounded, with over a million green cards issued last year.