Summer is here: The heat is on as states face climate calamities

Majority unprepared with action plans, as extreme weather looms: Experts

Last week, 13 people died from heatstroke at an open-air event in Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra, despite the state not facing any heatwave conditions. Experts have cited a combination of high temperature and high humidity as reasons that led to an above normal “wet bulb” temperature. But the lone event has raised questions about the awareness and preparedness of states for extreme and unprecedented weather events.

Having faced the fifth warmest year in 2022, different parts of India are likely to face an incremental impact of global warming this year, thanks to the warming phenomenon of El Niño, which is feared to land in the latter part of the year. But whether it is short-term heat action plans (HAPs) or long-term climate action plans, most states are unprepared for what is to come.

Summer is here

A recent study by the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) found the 37 HAPs that it analysed to be “insufficient and non-transparent”. HAPs are standard operating procedures (SOPs) which states/cities/municipal bodies need to tackle heat-related impacts.

This is at a time when India is staring at a possible sub-normal monsoon. According to private weather forecast agency Skymet, region-wise the June-to-September rains are expected to be deficient this year over western and northern parts, while below normal rains could be expected over central and eastern parts. All these areas are major agricultural regions and home to a bulk of India’s kharif oilseeds, pulses, coarse cereals and paddy production.

At the same time, as the Pacific heats due to El Niño, while overall rain might reduce some areas will see flooding. “Extreme weather events have been happening during the monsoon months, particularly in July and August, since the last few years. This is largely due to climate change, which has raised the quantum of such extreme weather events. Predicting them early and even otherwise is difficult,” Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather Services, told Business Standard.

Aditya Pillai, associate fellow, CPR, said the challenge for the states is to foresee a future of multiple, interacting extreme events and climate impacts, and think about what resilience means for them. “In recent years, we have seen states across the country face disasters and an assortment of economic shocks, which I think has prompted a real recognition of the threat of climate change. We see a variety of adaptation efforts afoot across the country — from sea walls to mangrove protection, heat planning, drought- and heat-resistant crops, a variety of economic modelling studies, etc. But the question is whether this is enough for the scale and speed of what is coming in the next decades,” said Pillai.

Waking up to the economic cost of climate

According to a report by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), more than 80 per cent Indians live in districts vulnerable to climate risks. Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Bihar are the states that are most vulnerable to extreme climate events.

According to CEEW, a range between as high as 45 per cent and 1.19 per cent of India’s GDP in 2050, and 59 to 1.17 per cent of India’s GDP in 2100, is estimated as the cost of global inaction on mitigating climate change.

In India, until 2022, only four states — Rajasthan, Kerala, Maharashtra and Himachal Pradesh — have revised and updated their state action plan on climate change (SAPCC), said a sector expert.

“Just one out of four districts in India has an updated disaster management plan/strategy, which should be updated annually. South Indian states are a bit better prepared in terms of disaster preparedness, but infrastructure losses top the tally,” said Abinash Mohanty, sector head, climate change and sustainability, IPE-Global. He added that more than 82 per cent of South Indian districts are hotspots for climate extremes like cyclones, floods, droughts and heat waves.

Unlike mitigation, where the central government plays a prominent role in developing the market, industry and regulations, adaptation is a bottom-up exercise.

“States and local governments need to design their own climate adaptation approaches based on their specific vulnerabilities. It starts with the states understanding what is coming, planning for it, improving welfare provision systems and building capacity, while also ensuring socioeconomic stability,” Pillai said.

Some bright spots

Last week, Kerala became the first state in India to come out with a water budget, tracking the availability and usage of water in 10 per cent of its villages. The move has been lauded, as Kerala has seen rapid changes in its climate pattern with extreme floods and heat waves in the last few years.

In a similar move, Tamil Nadu became the first state to come out with a Climate Change Mission last September. According to sources, the mission is targeted at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing the share of renewable energy and raising the use of public transport. Tamil Nadu was hit by many cyclones (Vardah, Ockhi, Gaja, Nivar, Burevi and Mandous) in the last few years. To take quick action in such eventualities in future, the state has also framed a district-wise standard operating procedure.

The West Bengal government is drafting a fresh SAPCC. “The Centre for Science and Environment will be drafting it but we are also engaging with experts and stakeholders. We have also asked the met department to give us 100-year data on rainfall and other aspects in various parts of the state, which will be analysed,” a senior government official said.

Successive cyclones have thinned the Sundarbans, one of the largest mangrove forests and a natural bio-shield. A massive mangrove plantation drive has been undertaken by the state forest department to create a bio-shield along the Bengal coastline and the Sundarbans, said officials.

Pillai said states are now aware of the role climate change can play in denting their development trajectory. Many, such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, have developed innovative policies for both mitigation and adaptation. “States will have to lead in adapting to climate change but the Centre will play a crucial role as a backstop by providing scientific expertise, finance, setting federal norms, and continuing to emphasise resilience. And in keeping with the contours of Indian federalism, much of this will have to be focused on poorer states with low capacity,” he said.