Assembly elections 2025: Two-pronged litmus test for AAP's 'Delhi model'

Both BJP and Congress are chalking out strategies to make the most of the anti-incumbency that may have set in during the Aam Aadmi Party's 10 years in office

In a couple of months from now, the country’s biggest, its oldest and its youngest national parties, would face off in a triangular contest for the Delhi Assembly polls. The first two, namely the biggest, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the oldest, the Congress, would share a rare common agenda of defeating the third — the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the latest to secure the ‘national party’ tag.

 

The term of Delhi Assembly expires on February 23, and the polls are likely in the middle of February. The contours of the battle have already been set. The AAP has taken to showcase its ‘Delhi model’, comprising affordable and quality education and healthcare, free transport for women, expansion of Delhi Metro network, free water supply up to 20,000 litres and lower electricity tariffs. The BJP and Congress have called out the ‘Delhi model’ as a hoax, built on sustained propaganda when the ground reality is different.

 

Earlier this week, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and Delhi Chief Minister (CM) Atishi announced the rollout of the CM Mahila Samman Scheme, under which the state government will deposit a monthly allowance of Rs 1,000 in the bank accounts of women, and promised to increase it to Rs 2,100 if the party were to return to power. However, with registration of women beneficiaries to begin later this week, it is unlikely that the first instalment would be disbursed before the Election Commission announces the schedule for polls.

 

Over the years, women have emerged as a committed support base for the AAP. According to think tank CSDS’ exit poll data for the 2020 Assembly elections, 60 per cent women said they voted for AAP compared to 49 per cent men. The BJP and Congress, in contrast, received 8 percentage and 2 percentage points lower vote share, respectively, among women as compared to men.

 

Just after the CM Mahila Samman Scheme was announced, the BJP and Congress were quick to point out that the AAP government in Punjab had promised a similar scheme for women ahead of 2022 Assembly polls, but failed to keep its word. Congress’ Punjab legislator Sukhpal Singh Khaira released a video message imploring Delhi’s electors to “wake up to AAP’s lies”. Delhi BJP chief Virendra Sachdeva even wrote to Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann asking him to clarify AAP’s position on the issue.

 

 

High-stakes contests on cards

 

The Assembly polls promise a clash of titans with former two-time Lok Sabha MP from East Delhi and Congress leader Sandeep Diskhit set to challenge Kerjiwal from the New Delhi seat. Sandeep, the son of Delhi’s longest serving chief minister Sheila Dikshit, claims Kejriwal has sullied his mother’s name by making unfounded allegations of corruption against her.

In the 2013 Assembly polls, Kejriwal had defeated Sheila Dikshit by a margin of nearly 26,000 votes.

 

The BJP is yet to release its list of candidates, but Parvesh Verma, son of former Delhi chief minister Sahib Singh Verma, is likely to throw his hat in the ring against Kejriwal and Sandeep, according to sources. The AAP’s theme for the seat would be: “do CM ke bete aur ek Dilli ka beta (sons of two CMs versus Delhi’s son)”.

 

The AAP has dropped 17 sitting legislators and changed the seats of some, including former deputy CM Manish Sisodia from Patparganj to Jangpura. Sisodia had struggled to win the seat in the 2020 Assembly polls.

 

Stiff challenge to AAP

 

The AAP and Congress have ruled out an alliance for Delhi Assembly polls. The two parties had a seat adjustment for the Lok Sabha polls in Haryana and Delhi, but contested separately in the Haryana Assembly polls. There is a section within the Congress that believes it is important to defeat the BJP, but others are of the view that it is more important to revive the party in Delhi.

 

The Congress’ vote share collapsed to 4.26 per cent in the 2020 Assembly polls, and it could not open its account for a second successive election in Delhi. However, in the 2022 civic polls, the Congress secured 11.68 per cent vote share, performing well in seats with a significant Muslim population. The AAP’s vote share declined from 53.57 per cent in 2020 Assembly polls to 42.05 per cent in the civic polls, with the minorities, especially Muslims, preferring the Congress.

 

The upcoming Assembly polls could become tougher for the AAP, if the minorities drift away.

 

Over the past three decades, the BJP has managed to keep its vote share between 34 to 38 per cent. But, the party has failed to form a government in Delhi for 26 years failing to offer a face that could challenge Sheila Dikshit, Kejriwal, and now Atishi.

Over the past couple of months, former Union minister Smriti Irani has been active in Delhi politics, but there was no formal word on whether she would be BJP’s CM face.

 

The party has launched a drive to reach out to Delhi’s slum dwellers, and also the national capital’s sizable Dalit population—both sections seen as a bedrock of AAP voter base.

 

According to a BJP strategist, the party believes that unlike 2015 and 2020, Kejriwal’s reputation as an ‘anti-corruption crusader’ had dented, and a triangular contest would hurt AAP the most.

 

The Congress is hoping that it would emerge as the kingmaker if AAP falls short of majority mark.