 "Brace for a bitter chill: IMD warns harsh winter for north Indian states")
The summer monsoon, which ended on Monday, concluded with rainfall levels approximately 8 per cent above the average, classifying it as ‘above normal’. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the monsoon is expected to completely withdraw from the country by mid-October, with the onset of the winter monsoon expected around October 17 in the southeastern peninsula.
The IMD has warned of a potentially severe winter for northern India, particularly in the northwest regions, including Delhi-NCR and the central areas, as La Nina conditions are projected to develop between October and November.
La Nina and its impacts
La Nina is a climatic phenomenon characterised by the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. While this condition is often linked to beneficial monsoon rainfall across the Indian subcontinent, it was notably absent during the recent summer monsoon months, contrary to various global forecasts.
“There is a 71 per cent chance that La Nina conditions will develop during October-November. In the years when you have La Nina, temperatures in the northern part of the country, especially northwest India and the adjoining central region, are below normal (colder than normal). So you can have cold wave conditions during winter months,” said IMD chief, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, as quoted by The Times of India.
Rainfall contributions
This year’s good rainfall can be attributed to several factors, including the occurrence of six depressions, 14 low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal, and the cyclonic storm ‘Asna’ in the Arabian Sea. The ‘above normal’ rainfall throughout the season has not only increased the area under kharif (summer-sown) crops beyond the average of the last five years, promising a favourable crop output, but has also replenished reservoirs essential for irrigating rabi (winter-sown) crops and for hydroelectric power generation, the news report mentions.
Regionally, the monsoon’s performance revealed significant variations, with arid regions like west Rajasthan experiencing a remarkable 71 per cent surplus in rainfall, while west Gujarat reported a 75 per cent increase compared to its normal levels.
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According to the IMD’s data, among the 36 meteorological subdivisions across the country, two subdivisions experienced large excess rainfall, ten subdivisions (26 per cent of the total area) received excess rainfall, while 21 subdivisions (54 per cent of the total area) recorded normal rainfall.
However, three subdivisions, including Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh, accounted for 11 per cent of the area, experiencing deficient rainfall this season. Notably, Punjab and Arunachal Pradesh received 28 per cent less than normal rainfall, while J&K and Ladakh faced a 26 per cent deficit, the report said.