 "Cyclone to form in Arabian Sea on Aug 30, first August storm since 1964")
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Thursday that a cyclone is expected to form over the northern Arabian Sea, near the Gujarat coast, by Friday. However, it is highly unlikely that the cyclone will impact the Indian coastline. This is because the current deep depression over the Saurashtra-Kutch region is predicted to move away into the northern Arabian Sea by August 30.
As of Thursday morning, satellite data from the IMD indicated that the deep depression had shifted westward and was positioned approximately 60 km north-northwest of Bhuj, 80 km northeast of Naliya, and 270 km east-southeast of Karachi, Pakistan.
In a press release, the IMD said, “It is likely to move west-southwestwards, emerge into northeast Arabian Sea off Kachchh and adjoining Saurashtra & Pakistan coasts and intensify into a cyclonic storm on August 30.”
If this cyclone does develop, it will be only the second such event in the Arabian Sea during August since 1964. Once it strengthens into a cyclone, it will be named Asna, a name provided by Pakistan.
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Monsoon depressions vs cyclones
Cyclones are rare during the monsoon season. During this period, depressions — synoptic systems with wind speeds ranging from 31 kmph to 50 kmph — can extend vertically up to 6 to 9 km and cover thousands of kilometres horizontally. These monsoon depressions have a cold core and tend to tilt southward while moving westward. Due to high vertical wind shear and the strong resistance from the southwest monsoon winds, depressions formed between June and September generally do not develop into cyclones, the IMD said in the release.
Data from the IMD indicates that depressions or their intensification in the Arabian Sea were recorded in 1961, 1964, and 2022, but none of these turned into cyclones. However, cases of depressions strengthening into cyclones over land were noted in 1926, 1944, and 1976.
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