 "Heatwave crisis: How many Indians are succumbing to the high temperatures?")
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a red alert for Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Madhya Pradesh, indicating a severe heatwave crisis.
A red alert signifies a "very high likelihood" of individuals developing "heat illness and heat stroke" and necessitates "extreme care" for vulnerable populations.
This warning follows a day of record-breaking temperatures, with the mercury surpassing 50 degrees Celsius in Rajasthan's Churu and Haryana's Sirsa, while Delhi experienced temperatures nine degrees above normal.
The IMD anticipates relief from the heatwave after May 30.
However, the pressing question remains: How many Indians are succumbing to the heatwave, and why is obtaining reliable data such a persistent challenge?
Let's delve deeper into the issue.
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How many Indians are dying of heat waves?
India has recorded 60 heat-related deaths since March 1, according to data from the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), as quoted by Livemint.
Across the country, 32 people have died due to heatstroke, and another 28 deaths are suspected to be caused by heatstroke. Government data also revealed that on May 22 alone, two people in Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan's Kota died of suspected heatstroke.
Since March 1, there have been 16,344 suspected heat stroke cases, with 486 cases reported on May 22 alone.
However, experts believe the actual numbers may be significantly higher. A senior official from the IMD, speaking to the Hindustan Times on condition of anonymity, said, "During the heat spells, the relative humidity in coastal areas over east India was well over 50 per cent and over northwest India, around 20-30 per cent. Humid heat can have very severe health impacts, and we fear that a large number of people may have been impacted."
Dileep Mavalankar, head of the Indian Institute of Public Health (IIPH) in Gandhinagar, explained, "There are two types of heatwave deaths – exertional, caused by exertion in direct sunlight leading to an inability to cool down by sweating, accounting for only 10 per cent of heatwave deaths. Non-exertional deaths occur among the vulnerable – the elderly, the sick, and infants who cannot cool down even at night. Their kidneys and heart start failing following dehydration. These people may not have access to cooling at home and can die anywhere, even at home, as it's not related to exertion. These are not categorised as heat strokes and are hence, possibly not counted as heat deaths at all."
Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, added, "In April last year, an intense humid heat wave hit India. While the total number of deaths related to that heatwave is unknown, it's likely hundreds or even thousands of people would have died. In Europe, which is less hot and has a less exposed population, 70,000 deaths were linked to high temperatures in a single year."
The challenge lies in accurately diagnosing such deaths. "It is very difficult to define the death due to heat waves if a person has died due to exhaustion. Nonetheless, we keep writing to the states to take measures," a government official was quoted as saying by the Hindustan Times.
"The diagnosis of heatstroke deaths is a challenging process and cannot be done by any doctor. Only experts can identify the issue," an official told Livemint.
Why is reliable data on heatwave deaths a challenge?
The issue of obtaining reliable data on heatwave deaths is plagued by discrepancies in reporting by various agencies.
According to Factly.in, the Ministry of Earth Sciences reported 6,751 heatwave deaths between 2009 and 2022. In contrast, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) recorded 11,090 deaths in the same period. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), in its annual Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India (ADSI) report, estimated the number of deaths due to heat strokes at 15,020 for the same timeframe.
Government officials acknowledge these discrepancies and state that steps are being taken to ensure a more accurate count.
According to Livemint, the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has launched the Integrated Health Information Platform (IHIP) to record cases and deaths from heatstroke. Doctors at 120 government hospitals across 21 states will now upload data directly to this platform, aiding public health policymakers in making informed decisions. A senior official mentioned that this system would soon be upgraded to electronic surveillance.
"The new suspected heat stroke cases and deaths are reported every 24 hours, which is updated by the states and Union Territories across the country on a centralised platform while cumulative figures are since March 1," another official added.
Despite these measures, some argue that they are insufficient. A report in Factly.in highlighted the need for standardised and accurate reporting mechanisms due to inconsistencies in data.
"Gaps in data collection, including specific types of heat-related illnesses, and standardisation of definitions highlight the importance of enhancing surveillance and reporting systems. Improving data quality and consistency is essential for better understanding the true burden of heat-related illnesses and implementing effective preventive measures," the article argued.
It stressed that, given the likely increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves in the future, addressing these shortfalls is imperative.
Heatwaves grip India
India is grappling with unusually high temperatures this summer, with the weather department predicting "heat wave to severe heat wave" conditions likely to persist in several regions, including the national capital.
A heat wave is declared in India when the maximum temperature of a region is 4.5 to 6.4 degrees Celsius higher than usual, while a severe heat wave is declared when the maximum temperature is 6.5 degrees Celsius or more above normal.
On Tuesday, at least three weather stations in Delhi recorded maximum temperatures of 49 degrees Celsius or more. Mungeshpur and Narela clocked 49.9 degrees Celsius, followed by Najafgarh at 49.8 degrees Celsius, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This was the highest maximum temperature recorded in the capital this season. However, the Mungeshpur and Narela weather stations, established in 2022, have records only for the last three years.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra attributed the heatwave conditions over northwest and central India to the absence of western disturbances during the latter half of May. Western disturbances are extra-tropical weather systems formed over the Mediterranean Sea that move from west to east.
Water shortage in India
The deadly heatwave is testing power grids and causing water shortages across the country. The Central Water Commission reported that water storage in 150 major reservoirs in India dropped to just 24 per cent of their live storage last week, exacerbating water shortages in many states and significantly affecting hydropower generation.
The Maharashtra irrigation department noted that the water stock in Jayakwadi Dam in the drought-prone Marathwada region stood at a mere 5.19 per cent of its capacity on Monday after recording an evaporation loss of 1.15 million cubic metres (MCM) in a single day due to the heat.
The intense heat has driven India's power demand to 239.96 gigawatts (GW), the highest so far this season, as air conditioners and coolers in homes and offices run at full capacity. Experts anticipate that power demand could rise even further, potentially surpassing the all-time high of 243.27 GW recorded in September 2023.
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