'India's annual temp to rise 1.5°C by 2057, if emissions stay moderate'

The study highlights that these changes could exacerbate extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, and intense rainfall, with wide-ranging effects on communities, agriculture, and natural

India is set to experience drastic climate shifts, with annual maximum temperature projected to rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) by 2057 under moderate emission scenarios, while this rise in mercury could occur a decade earlier in case of high emissions, a report by Azim Premji University revealed on Sunday.

 

The projections in the report, Navigating India's Climate Future- Climate Projections for India (2021 -2040), are based on scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Moderate emissions pathway assumes partial reduction in emissions and adaptation efforts, while high emissions scenario foresees heavy dependence on fossil fuels, resulting in more severe climate impacts.

 

The study underscores how these changes could exacerbate extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts, and intense rainfall, with wide-ranging effects on communities, agriculture, and natural resources. The summer maximum temperatures under moderate emissions are expected to increase by 1.5°C by 2043, while high emission pathway advances this timeline to 2041.

 

“India is one of the global hotspots for climate change. With the majority of the population relying on agriculture and natural resources for survival, coupled with a high population density, they are acutely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,” the report said.

 

Among the most vulnerable regions is Leh, where temperatures are projected to rise significantly. Under moderate emissions, Leh could witness a 1.6°C increase in both summer and annual maximum temperatures. Similarly, winter minimum temperatures are set to rise by 1°C or more in 611 districts in the country under the same scenario, with 139 districts likely to experience changes exceeding 1.5°C.

 

The high emissions scenario paints an even grimmer picture. At least 249 districts across the country are expected to see annual maximum temperatures increase by 1°C or more, with 16 districts in the Himalayan states facing an increase of 1.5°C or higher. Leh again emerges as the most affected, with an estimated rise of 1.8°C. Winter minimum temperatures are expected to climb by at least 1.5°C in 162 districts, with Anjaw in Arunachal Pradesh projected to record the highest increase at 2.2°C.

 

Coastal and Himalayan regions face compounded risks, as summer wet-bulb temperatures—an indicator of combined heat and humidity—are likely to exceed the dangerous threshold of 31°C in 24 to 25 districts. This poses severe health hazards and highlights the vulnerability of these regions to escalating climate stress.

 

The projections on precipitation patterns reveal stark regional disparities, with western and southwestern states like Gujarat and Rajasthan expected to experience a significant rise in rainfall, while northeastern and Himalayan regions, including Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, are likely to see rainfall deficits during critical monsoon periods.

 

This shift could exacerbate climate-induced challenges, such as severe flooding in western states, soil erosion reducing agricultural productivity, and increased landslides in high-altitude regions like Ladakh, posing threats to traditional housing and livelihoods.

 

Conversely, drought-like conditions in northeastern states could strain rain-fed farming systems, highlighting the urgent need for region-specific adaptation strategies to mitigate risks to agriculture, health, and local economies.