India to witness 'below normal' rainfall this monsoon season: Skymet

Skymet said that there is a 0% chance of excess rainfall in the upcoming monsoon season

India is likely to witness "below normal" rainfall in the upcoming monsoon between June and September, private weather forecaster Skymet said on Monday. The rainfall is expected to be lower to the tune of 94 per cent of the long-period average (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent).

The Skymet report stated that there is a 0 per cent chance of excess rainfall in the upcoming monsoon season. Earlier in January, Skymet had predicted a sub-par monsoon in 2023, it retained that forecast on Monday.

The main reason for the low rainfall is El Nino. El Nino and La Nina are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that impact global weather. These occur every two to seven years. During El Nino, the surface water of the Pacific Ocean warms unusually.

"Courtesy Triple-Dip-La Nina, southwest monsoon observed above normal/normal rainfall for the last 4 consecutive seasons. Now, La Nina has ended. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. The likelihood of El Nino is increasing and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon," said Jatin Singh, managing director (MD) at Skymet.

Besides El Nino, there are other factors that will impact the rainfall this year. According to Skymet, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to steer monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Nino, when sufficiently strong. It is neutral now and is leaning to turn moderately positive at the start of the monsoon. El Nino and IOD are likely to be "out of phase" and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution. The second half of the season is expected to be more aberrated.

Skymet added that northern and central parts of the country are at risk of being in a rain deficit. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August. Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are likely to observe less than normal rains during the second half of the season.