Karnataka Assembly elections: Finding balance in the juggling act

PM's appeal, Congress' survival, JD(S)'s relevance at stake in an election that is as much about govt formation in Karnataka and political power as it is about succession planning in different parties

With just over a month for elections to the 224-member Karnataka Assembly, all parties are refining election strategies, promises, caste alliances, and issue-framing.

The last Assembly election in Karnataka was held in May 2018, which resulted in a hung Assembly. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the single-largest party with 104 seats but fell short of a majority. The Congress and Janata Dal (Secular), or JD(S), formed a post-poll coalition with 80 and 37 seats, respectively, and formed the government with Haradanahalli Deve Gowda Kumaraswamy as chief minister (CM). However, in July 2019, the coalition collapsed after several Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) resigned from their parties and joined the BJP. The BJP then formed the government with Bookanakere Siddalingappa Yediyurappa as CM. He resigned in July 2021 and was replaced by Basavaraj Somappa Bommai.

The Karnataka Assembly currently has 121 MLAs of the ruling BJP, while Congress has 70 and its ally JD(S) has 30 seats.

This time, however, the situation is significantly different.

At least two of Karnataka’s tallest leaders — Siddaramanahundi Siddarame Gowda Siddaramaiah and Yediyurappa — have announced their retirement from electoral politics after this election.

Although Kumaraswamy has also hinted at an exit, his supporters say his decision is not final. In some ways, this election is as much about government formation and political power as it is about succession planning in different political parties.

The stakes

But there are other stakes as well.

Says political activist Yogendra Yadav: “The BJP has reached saturation point in the areas of its dominance. The ruling party has very little room to make up for the losses it is bound to face in several states in 2024. If it loses even half of the 26 (including the seat won by the Independent supported by the party) seats it won in Karnataka in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, there is nowhere in the country (except partly Telangana) where it can hope to add to its existing tally and make up for these losses. It must retain its hold over Karnataka.”

He adds that the stakes for the Congress are equally high.

“The Congress desperately needs to win this election. Having lost the Maharashtra government, the resource-starved Opposition needs at least one well-off state where deep pockets are not mortally scared of funding the Opposition parties. Currently, Karnataka is the only possibility. In political terms, Karnataka is a test case for Congress revival.”

The issues

The issues in this election are also different from previous ones.

Yediyurappa has said the BJP must speak to its performance as the state government. However, others in the party believe it would be better to address issues like hijab for schoolgirls, the Tipu Sultan debate, and love jihad.

Local newspapers quoted BJP state unit chief Nalin Kumar Kateel in Mangaluru as telling party workers: “Do not discuss small issues like roads and sewage... If you’re worried about your children’s future, and if you want to stop love jihad, then we need the BJP.”

For the BJP, Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s popularity is also going to be leveraged heavily: the PM has already been to the state seven times in six months.

The Congress says the more the BJP dwells on performance, the better it is for it because the ruling BJP is shrouded in corruption.

“We have consistently raised the issue of alleged commissions and kickbacks being paid to win government contracts in the poll-bound state. Recently, BJP MLA Madal Virupakshappa was arrested near Kyathasandra toll plaza in Tumakuru in a bribery case. The Congress called a two-hour bandh against corruption,” said Karnataka Congress President Doddalahalli Kempegowda Shivakumar.

He added that the party is not without its ideas for improving governance.

“The Congress has promised 200 units of free power and Rs 2,000 to every woman head of the family. If power leakage is prevented, if 40 per cent corruption in the energy department is prevented, if we can recover thousands of crores of dues, nothing is impossible,” he said.

The regions

The BJP has set itself a new frontier to cross: Old Mysuru, the regions of Mandya and Hassan which are strongholds of the JD(S). Of the 61 seats in the region, the BJP has been unable to win more than 12. Except for its victory in two by-elections (Krishnarajpete in Mandya and Sira in Tumakuru) in 2020, the party has had to struggle without making any substantial inroads into the region.

Similarly, the Congress will have to try and make a dent in coastal Karnataka where it has been pounded by the BJP over the past two decades.

There is another, albeit small, threat.

One of the Reddy brothers — G Janardhana Reddy (aka Bellary King) — who shot to fame for his involvement in various mining scandals, has launched his party and will contest 15-20 seats in Bellary and central Karnataka.

In an election where every seat will matter, who will win over the Reddy brothers remains to be seen.