Experts warn of Covid spike in Kerala as vaccine-induced immunity wanes

A family in Kerala recently contracted Covid. A middle-aged doctor, Abin Thomas (name changed), got infected first, spreading it eventually to his wife and parents. While the rest of them recovered at home, both the elderly required hospitalisation; one of them is still recovering.

Doctors say vaccine-induced Covid immunity is waning, and in the winters, there is likely to be a surge in cases. The southern state of Kerala, for example, is witnessing a gradual spike in Covid cases in November.

Kerala now has 194 active cases, accounting for 61 per cent of the active cases in India.

Sample this: of the total 141 tests done in Rajagiri Hospital in Kochi, 7.09 per cent were Covid cases in November.

Sharing this sample data, Rajeev Jayadevan, co-chairman of the National Indian Medical Association’s Covid task force, said that the number was far lower at 1.4 per cent in August, climbing up to 2 per cent in September and 2.22 per cent in October.

“Covid clinical severity has been mild, and no fatalities were reported. Covid goes through cycles that are not necessarily connected with seasons. This rise comes with no surprise. However, the factor is that no tests are going on outside of academic centres and surveillance facilities,” said Jayadevan.

Kerala government sources told Business Standard that the state is keeping a close watch on the rise in Covid cases.

The virus, however, is not yet known to be causing clusters of seriously ill patients.

“Covid is making a slow return. There is nothing unusual in their presentation. No reports of anything extraordinary happening. The number of Covid tests is less. We are seeing a rise in influenza cases across the world, and several dengue cases are also reported,” Jayadevan added.

Experts indicate that the Omicron BA.2.86 variant — and its offshoots, including JN.1 — are a cause for concern for the health industry, and JN.1 is vaccine-evasive.

Apart from Kerala, Uttar Pradesh has 61 cases, Odisha has 55, Maharashtra has 13, and Tamil Nadu has 18, data from the Centre showed.

Maharashtra Public Health Department bulletin showed that weekly positive cases have been slowly climbing — from zero cases in the first week of November to 10 cases in the November 22-28 weeks.

Rupkatha Sen, consultant-critical care, SRV Hospitals, Chembur (Mumbai) said that the last time she attended to a patient with Covid pneumonia was six months back.

“Covid is not presenting itself as a severe disease. But the immunity from vaccine shots is waning; many did not take boosters, and for those who did, it is almost a year back. Therefore, we can expect to see some rise in Covid cases this winter,” she said, adding that there is nothing to panic about at the moment.

The Maharashtra government has issued an advisory to hospitals to ensure preparedness in the wake of rising clusters of pneumonia cases in China. Sen said that whenever an influenza patient (H1N1 or any other virus) is admitted, they are kept in a five-day quarantine to protect the medical staff and other patients. Intensive care units thus have separate facilities for such patients.

Senior virologist Jacob John felt that the virus strains are mutating, but Omicron sub-variants are in circulation. While some strains are likely to evade immunity, serious illness is unlikely.

He, however, added that while China is reporting a rise in pneumonia cases, its neighbouring Taiwan is not, despite a lot of travel between the two countries. It could be an after-effect of a strict lockdown in China.