Soon, artificial cloud chambers to study how to enhance weather events

India’s newly approved Mission Mausam, with an outlay of Rs 2,000 crore, among other things, will look to create artificial clouds in laboratories or chambers to study the enhancement or suppression of weather events such as rain, hail, or fog.

These studies and experiments conducted through cloud seeding will help in gradually moving more towards the next phase of weather management rather than just forecasting by 2047, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) Secretary M Ravichandran told reporters.

The cloud chambers could be set up either at the Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting or the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune.

Globally, countries such as China have been working on creating cloud chambers to conduct experiments on managing the weather.

Explaining the blueprint of the ambitious mission, which was cleared by the Union Cabinet on Wednesday, Ravichandran said that the mission is primarily based on four pillars: improving weather observation by setting up more radars, wind profilers, and radiosondes; boosting the science by undertaking experiments on artificial suppression or enhancement of weather; better modelling through the use of numerical and artificial intelligence (AI)-based systems; and improved forecasting and dissemination through new-age tools like Mausam GPT, which will be developed by the ministry.

“Our target is that over the next five years, we will establish a major infrastructure backbone across the country so that by 2047, India can move from just weather forecasting to weather management,” Ravichandran said.

The outcomes of cloud seeding achieved in the four phases of the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment, which began in 2009 by MoES, will form the basis for such experiments.

On improving observation, Ravichandran said that India has a network of around 39 radars, which will reach 100 by March 2026 and will be further scaled up. Investments will also be made in building new ground stations so that observations from international satellites can be accurately captured.

He said that the speed of computers to process the observed data is also being enhanced so that quicker forecasting can be made.

Citing a gap in weather observation infrastructure between India and the world, the official said that India has around 22 high-performance S-band radars for weather forecasting, while the US has around 160. Similarly, India currently does not have any wind profilers or microwave radiometers, while China has around 128 or 100 of them.

The aim of enhancing the network of radars, wind profilers, and other equipment, according to the secretary, is to narrow the forecast scale from the current 20 kilometre (km) to 10-12 km, and then to 6 km. There will also be a focus on providing hourly forecasts for highly localised areas rather than the current six-hourly updates.

He said the modelling will also incorporate modern tools such as Big Data analytics and AI, in addition to existing numerical and statistical models.

For the dissemination of weather forecasts, tools such as Mausam GPT will be developed as part of Mission Mausam, Ravichandran said.

He added that Mission Mausam is an incremental improvement over the ongoing Monsoon Mission of MoES, as the latter focuses on improving seasonal forecasts while the former is focused on weather forecasting.

On the budgetary allocation, the secretary said that the Rs 2,000 crore granted by the Cabinet will be used between September 2024 and March 2026, after which more funds might be sought if needed.

Commenting on the ambitious plan, Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, a former MoES secretary and a renowned Indian monsoon expert, told Business Standard that weather modification and management is a complex science, and it is difficult to replicate experiments done in real clouds with artificial clouds.

Bharat Sharma, scientist emeritus of the International Water Management Institute, said that such experiments can be conducted in isolated events but with the utmost care, as sometimes the experiments can go wrong. Also, creating clouds and managing weather is not a replacement for water conservation.

Cloud of uncertainty lifts on rumours

Delhi was abuzz with rumours of a massive patch of clouds moving towards the national capital, causing widespread rains. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest update, said that a depression over southwest Uttar Pradesh (UP) remained centred around its existing position throughout September 12 and might gradually weaken in the days to come.

It predicted light to moderate rainfall over most places in western UP, which neighbours the national capital, with isolated instances of very heavy rainfall. It also forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on September 13 and 14. The weather office advised people to be aware of localised flooding and waterlogging on roads. The IMD said the weather system was under constant surveillance through Doppler radars located in Lucknow and Delhi.