Monsoon rains over Kerala likely in next 48 hours, says IMD forecast

Onset could be weak due to cyclone 'Biparjoy', some weathermen said

In what may come as a relief from heat and humidity, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its latest weather bulletin announced that the southwest monsoon was expected over the coast of Kerala in the next 48 hours.

However, some meteorologists said that the onset of monsoon could be mild over the Kerala coast due to the impact of cyclone 'Biparjoy', the first storm brewing in the Arabian Sea this year. It (the cyclone) could also hinder the progress of the monsoon, the meteorologists added.

The Met office said the severe cyclonic storm is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm. It would then move north-northwestwards during the subsequent three days.

However, the IMD has not yet predicted any major impact on countries adjoining the Arabian Sea, including India, Oman, Iran and Pakistan.

The onset of the southwest monsoon is a keenly tracked weather pattern. It contributes to about 75 per cent of the annual rainfall, irrigates more than half of India’s farmlands, and is one of the main influences on agricultural output.

The Met said that the latest meteorological features associated with monsoon onset over Kerala show the persistence of westerly winds over South Arabian Sea, an increase in the depth of westerly winds up to middle tropospheric levels, and increase of cloudiness over areas covering Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep and Kerala coasts.

“In such a scenario, the conditions are becoming favorable for the onset of monsoon over Kerala in the next 48 hours,” said IMD.

It said that the conditions were also favorable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into more parts of South Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, the Maldives-Comorin region, greater parts of Southwest and Central Bay of Bengal, parts of Northeast Bay of Bengal, and some parts of the Northeast during the same period.

Meanwhile, weathermen from private weather forecasting agency Skymet, too, predicted the onset of the monsoon to be on June 9. Earlier, they had expected it to reach Kerala on June 7, with an error margin of plus/minus three days.

A delayed onset of the southwest monsoon could delay the sowing of critical kharif crops, particularly paddy. According to the forecast, June rains over most parts of India in the four-month southwest monsoon season of this year that will end in September are expected to be ‘below normal’.

The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days. In mid-May, the IMD said the monsoon might arrive in Kerala by June 4.

The southeast monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019, and May 29 in 2018. India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, notwithstanding the evolving El Niño conditions, the IMD had said earlier. 

Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall. East and Northeast, Central, and South Peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 centimeters (cm).

According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 87 cm is considered ‘normal’. Rainfall less than 90 per cent of LPA is ‘deficient’, between 90 per cent and 95 per cent ‘below normal’, between 105 per cent and 110 per cent ‘above normal’, and more than 100 per cent ‘excess’ precipitation.

Normal rainfall is critical to India’s agricultural landscape, with 52 per cent of the net cultivated area relying on it. It is also critical to replenishing reservoirs vital for drinking water, apart from power generation across the country.

Rainfed agriculture accounts for about 40 per cent of the country’s total food production, making it a crucial contributor to India’s food security and economic stability.

 What weatherman says

 Latest meteorological features associated with monsoon onset over Kerala show the persistence of westerly   winds over South   Arabian Sea
 

 An increase in the depth of westerly winds up to middle tropospheric levels
 

 Increasing cloud cover over areas covering Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep and Kerala coasts
 

 Conditions also favourable for parts of south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Maldives, and some parts of the Northeast