Normal rains likely this year despite El Nino conditions, says IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), the state-run official weather agency, on Tuesday predicted “normal” rains during this year’s monsoon season — June to September — at 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) in spite of the anticipated El Nino conditions.

The forecast comes a day after Skymet, the private weather agency, said there would be a “below-normal” monsoon this year due to El Nino — the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America that weakens monsoon winds.

Monsoon rains are critical for India’s agriculture sector, with 52 per cent of the net cultivated land relying on them for irrigation. Agriculture accounts for 40 per cent of India’s food production.

The met based its observations on two positive emerging weather patterns. One, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), currently neutral, is expected to turn positive during the southwest monsoon season that starts from June.

Two, the below-normal snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia in February and March this year, which tends to have an adverse correlation with India’s monsoon, will help make the monsoon normal, the IMD said.

Its forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent and the LPA for 1971-2020 is 87 centimeters. This means the total rainfall in India this monsoon, according to the IMD, will be around 83.5 centimeters.

“The El Nino impact will be neutralized by a positive IOD and snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere during the winter,” Mritunjay Mohapatra, IMD’s director-general, told reporters in New Delhi.

The IMD data shows a 35 per cent probability of the monsoon being normal, a 29 per cent chance it could be below normal, 22 per cent chance it might be deficient, 11 per cent it could be above normal, and just a 3 per cent chance that the monsoon could be in excess.

"We need to wait and see how the monsoon arrives and progresses. Even in the past we have almost always had a good preliminary forecast. But what is important is the start and progress and finally the departure of the monsoon. The inter-spatial distribution is critical for the final outcomes," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.

A monsoon season is considered normal if it receives rainfall of 96 to 104 per cent of the LPA. Rainfall between 90 and 95 per cent of the LPA is considered below normal, and 104 to 110 per cent as excess. Rainfall below 90 per cent of the LPA is considered deficient.

Region-wise, the IMD expects normal to below-normal rains in some areas of north-west India, parts of west-central India — in Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra, Telangana and Gujarat — and pockets of the North-East. Normal rainfall is likely over many areas of the peninsular India, adjoining east-central India, east India, north-east India, and over parts of north-west India. In a significant portion of the country, the met said, all the three climatological probabilities could occur: below-normal, normal, and above-normal rains.

"The quantum of rainfall is important but so is its timing. The moot question is whether farmers receive rainfall when they need it. The monsoon contributes 30 to 35 per cent of our sales," said Rajesh Aggarwal, managing director, Insecticides (India) Ltd.