Sept rains improve, but do little for seven states: CRISIL's DRIP Index

True to the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD’s) prediction, rains improved in September after an arid August. All-India cumulative rainfall stood marginally better at -6 per cent of LPA on September 26, compared with -10 per cent on August 31. But most of the damage was done in August, which, apart from July, is the key month for kharif sowing. The southwest 

monsoon season is ending on a below-normal note. (rains +/-4 per cent of LPA are considered normal).

During the month, rains caught up most in central India (0 per cent of LPA on September 26 vs -10 per cent on August 31), and the southern peninsula (-9 per cent vs -17 per cent). However, it remained weak in the Northeast (-18 per cent vs -17 per cent). It was steady in the Northwest (2 per cent vs 3 per cent).  Among the major kharif-producing states, the deficit was widest in Jharkhand (-27 per cent of LPA on September 26), followed by Bihar (-22 per cent) and Karnataka (-19 per cent). These states are major producers of arhar (tur), rice, and jowar respectively.

For a granular analysis, we use CRISIL’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter, or DRIP, which maps rainfall with irrigation cover across states and crops. The higher the CRISIL DRIP score, the more adverse the impact of deficient rains. 

The latest scores (based on disaggregated data available up to September 20) show persisting pressure for seven major kharif states. Scores for these states remain worse than their past five-year average.  But when seen from the DRIP lens (which also considers irrigation coverage), Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Karnataka stand out as the most hit. While large rain deficiency is behind Jharkhand’s score, insufficient irrigation cover is adversely impacting the latter two states. Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha follow, but their DRIP scores are somewhat less adverse.

From a crop perspective, scores were also adverse for seven kharif crops, viz., tur, jowar, bajra, soybean, maize, rice, and cotton. 

Tur had the worst score as Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Karnataka account for 

64 per cent of its production.

Three of these crops — jowar, tur and cotton — also had lower sowing on-year as of September 22, by -9.1%, -5.1%, and -3.2%, respectively.

Rains have been erratic this year, swinging from deficit in June to excess in July and then back to deficient in August, which narrowed moderately in September. The IMD has observed monsoon withdrawal beginning in north-west India. Deficit rains may maintain pressure on crop output this year.