National average coal stock at season's low ahead of festival demand

Coal, rail ministries confident stock will replenish by mid-month

The national average coal stock at thermal power stations has reached a critical low for the first time this year due to rains in Eastern India, impacting coal production and supply operations. This shortage in coal supply coincides with a period of rising power demand and the approaching festival season.

As of October 8, the national average coal stock at thermal power stations stood at 7.6 days (40 per cent of the normative stock level), according to data from the National Power Portal. Over the past week, the coal stock level has been falling while the national peak power demand has remained in the range of 190–220 gigawatt (Gw). Currently, 84 thermal power units have stock below 25 per cent of their normative stock limit and are classified as having critical stock. In the same week last year, there were only 24 units with critical stock limits.

India’s power demand reached a record high of 240 Gw in September, driven by economic rebound and prolonged hot weather. The demand is expected to remain higher than previous years until at least November due to the festival season coinciding with delayed winters.

The El Niño weather phenomenon has arrived in India, leading to hotter-than-usual days in the coming months. Cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal and a retreating monsoon in Eastern India have caused rains in coal-rich states in recent weeks.

Coal Secretary Amrit Lal Meena said that national miner Coal India (CIL) will soon replenish the depleting coal stock. “The production and supply of coal were impacted by the rains in the eastern part of the country. CIL is supplying 100 per cent of its committed capacity. Rail and road transport were affected by the rains, but we are confident that by the middle of this month, coal stock will significantly increase,” Meena said.

Data from the Indian Railways shows a 24.26 per cent decline in the unloading of rakes containing coal and coke this month. West Central Railway, serving a major portion of Madhya Pradesh, has recorded a 30 per cent drop in coal rake unloading during the first nine days of October, totalling 193 rakes. Several other zones — Northern Railway (33 per cent) and North Central Railway (29 per cent) — have seen similar drops in unloading.

On the other hand, loading of rakes with coal and coke from the coal-rich East Coast Railway has fallen by 3.35 per cent in the first nine days of this month, while it has decreased by 2.8 per cent for South Eastern Railway during the same period.

Officials involved in freight operations in the Ministry of Railways noted that this year, the concern has not been a shortage of rakes but rather the impact of rains on coal output at mines in disproportionate ways. “The last few weeks of unseasonal rains have caused issues at mines, and our rakes are stable (kept unused) because of this. Even now, the aggregate supply of rakes is higher than the demand from thermal power plants,” a senior official told Business Standard. 

The Ministry of Railways did not respond to an email query from this paper.

The official added that supply-chain realignment occurred due to rains in Eastern India in recent weeks. This meant that some power plants, where coal stocks were not as dire, did not receive the exact amount of coal they had requested, resulting in what they term as a ‘shortage of rake’. “It is simply a realignment of supply routes during a contingency,” the official said. The national transporter is also concerned about the short-term revenue loss caused by this situation, as half of their revenue comes from coal transportation.

As the festival season approaches, railways will prioritise the movement of passenger trains over freight trains to prevent congestion in the passenger network during peak travel season. The railways plans to utilise newly commissioned lines to handle increased traffic.

“We do not anticipate any major problems for coal transport during the festival season,” the first official said.