India may become global leader in 5G fixed wireless access market by 2027

Telecom gear maker Ericsson estimates that India may have 80-100 million 5G FWA subscribers by 2030

India is expected to become the world’s largest 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) market by 2027 with over 30 million subscribers and overtake the US, the current global leader with 15 million subscribers, according to Counterpoint Research.

 

“India should reach closer to 30 million subscribers by 2027 and the US will be around 25 million. It will be the real inflection point for India,” says Neil Shah, co-founder of Counterpoint Research. 

Telecom gear maker Ericsson estimates that India is expected to have 80-100 million 5G FWA subscribers by 2030. In India, fixed broadband services grew slowly at a CAGR of 13 per cent from 21 million subscribers in 2018 to a projected 49 million subscribers in 2024. The FWA service launched by Reliance Jio in September 2023 and followed a few months later by Bharti Airtel is expected to end 2024 with 5 million customers. 

According to research, while the gap with the US is still substantial - three times - the good news is that the country already accounts for a seventh of the total global 5G FWA subscriber base which is projected to be 35 million by the end of 2024. Reliance Jio has led this growth, hitting 2.8 million 5G FWA connections by the September quarter of 2024. It is offering the service in over 7,700 cities and towns across the country, making it available in Tier-II and Tier-IV markets. Even Airtel has rolled out services in over 1,300 cities and towns.   

As FWA already becomes a key instrument for 5G monetisation for most global mobile companies, the response from Indian subscribers has been encouraging for telos. According to telcos, the average consumption of data per connection( household) is currently 500-600 GB a month, far higher than the usage via fibre (around 250- 300 GB per month),  and 16 times more than mobile users (30 GB). 

With tariffs of the two broadband options —fixed and wireless — similar, this translates into higher average revenue per user (ARPU) from an FWA subscriber, which already is three to five times higher than 5G mobile ARPUs of around Rs 200. 

The challenge for telcos on the 5G FWA front can come from satellite broadband services like Starlink or Amazon’s Kuiper which have many satellites in their constellations to offer huge capacity in India, with the 5G speed offerings at competitive or even lower prices. That is why telcos want an auction of the satellite spectrum at a level playing field.