The Reserve Bank of India or RBI stated in its monetary policy update today that high frequency indicators of investment activity as evident in strong expansion in steel consumption, high capacity utilisation, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, and the Governments continued thrust on infrastructure spending, point to a robust outlook. Improving world trade prospects could support external demand. Headwinds from geopolitical tensions, volatility in international commodity prices and geoeconomic fragmentation, however, pose risks to the outlook. Taking all these factors into consideration, real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.1 per cent; Q2 at 7.2 per cent; Q3 at 7.3 per cent; and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1:2025-26 is projected at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced. Headline inflation increased to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 after remaining steady at 4.8 per cent during April-May 2024. Core (CPI excluding food and fuel) inflation at 3.1 per cent in May-June touched a new low in the current CPI series, with core services inflation also at its lowest in the series.
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