Bharti Airtel Q4 revenue may rise up to 6.4% QoQ, ARPU growth to aid margin

Bharti Airtel Q4 preview: Telecom major Bharti Airtel is likely to clock up to 6.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) revenue growth to Rs 31,797 crore in the January-March quarter (Q4YF23), largely led by increase in India and Africa's wireless revenue mix, said analysts. The company is scheduled to announce Q4 results on Tuesday, May 16.
 

According to brokerages, strong service mix, along with increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) will help expand Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) margins to 51 per cent in Q4FY23 from 49 per cent in Q3FY23.
 

Profit-after-tax (PAT), meanwhile, is estimated to grow 103.5 per cent QoQ to Rs 1,689 crore in the March quarter.  
 

That apart, latest TRAI data indicated that the telecom major continued to add wireless broadband subscribers to 2.2 million in February 2023, which accounted for 63.2 per cent of customer share.
 

At the bourses, shares of Bharti Airtel have declined 1.86 per cent so far this calendar year (CY23), as against 2 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex.
 

Meanwhile, here's what brokerages estimate for Bharti Airtel's Q4FY23 numbers:
 

Motilal Oswal

The brokerage firm projects the telecom operator to post 3 per cent revenue growth sequentially, led by 2 per cent increase in ARPU, and subscriber addition of 1 per cent. Both domestic wireless as well as Airtel Africa is expected to see a sequential revenue growth of 3 per cent each. Analysts have shared a 'buy' stance on the counter, with a target price of Rs 749 per share.
 

Axis Securities

Analysts model Bharti Airtel to report 6.5 per cent QoQ and 23.5 per cent YoY revenue growth to Rs 31,797 crore in Q4FY23. PAT, moreover, is expected to jump 103.5 per cent QoQ to Rs 1,689 crore in the March quarter, they said. On a YoY basis, PAT is likely to grow 11.8 per cent YoY from Rs 1,511 crore. Strong service mix, coupled with increase in ARPU may also help Ebitda margins expand to 51 per cent in Q4FY23 from 48 per cent in Q4FY22.
 

JM Financial

The brokerage firm builds moderate wireless subscriber addition of around 2 million, and 4G subscriber addition is expected to remain strong at around 5 million. As ARPU is likely to rise to Rs 197 in Q4FY23 from Rs 193 in Q3FY23, India's wireless revenue is pegged to grow 3 per cent QoQ to Rs 19,900 crore in the March quarter, and Ebitda to Rs 10,900 crore, up 4.4 per cent QoQ. Consolidated reported PAT, meanwhile, is estimated to jump 154.4 per cent QoQ to Rs 4,039 crore.