FMCG woes: HUL, Dabur, Godrej Consumer risk up to 15% downside; show charts

As FMCG shares led by Godrej Consumer fell up to 11% on Monday post the volume growth concern; the Nifty FMCG index slipped below its 20-DMA after a two-week struggle; chart hints at further 4.5% dip.

The Nifty FMCG index cracked 2.4 per cent in intra-day deals on Monday dragged by losses up to 11 per cent in individual consumer product shares after Godrej Consumer Products flagged concerns over volume growth in Q3FY25.   

  The Nifty FMCG index hit a low of 56,385, and was quoting around 56,400 levels - down 2.3 per cent as of 10:30 AM on Monday. In comparison, the NSE Nifty 50 index was down 0.3 per cent at 24,616.  Among the Nifty FMCG stocks - Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) crashed almost 11 per cent to Rs 1,102. Shares of Hindustan Unilever (HUL) plunged nearly 4 per cent. Marico, Colgate Palmolive, Dabur India, Tata Consumer Products and Britannia declined in the range of 2 - 3 per cent.  On Friday, post market hours, GCPL in an exchange filing said, impacted by an increase in soap prices and unseasonal rainfall slowing down sales of the home insecticides (HI) segment, Godrej Consumer Products expects a "flattish" underlying volume growth and a mid-single-digit sales growth in the domestic market in the December quarter.  The company anticipates normalisation happening on the volume growth side following price stabilisation after the next few months only as per the historical patterns.    Given the initial knee-jerk reaction to Godrej Consumer Products volume growth concerns; should you be worried or will the FMCG stocks bounce back soon?  Here's what the technical charts indicate:  Nifty FMCG  Current Level: 56,535  Downside Risk: 4.6%  Support: 55,550  Resistance: 57,230; 58,310  After somehow managing to sustain above its 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) for the last two weeks, the Nifty FMCG index seems to have broken the short-term support once again following today's sharp fall. Further, the daily chart shows, the index was unable to clear its near-term hurdle at 58,310 levels despite repeated attempts.  Going ahead, the 20-DMA at 57,230 followed by 58,310 levels is likely to remain the key hurdles for the index. On the downside, the Nifty FMCG index could drift back towards its recent lows around 55,550 levels; below which the major support stands around 53,950 levels. Break and sustained trade below 53,950 levels can dismantle the long-term bullish structure on the FMCG index. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART    Godrej Consumer Products  Current Price: Rs 1,119  Downside Risk: 14.2%  Support: Rs 1,109; Rs 1,038  Resistance: Rs 1,140; Rs 1,200  Godrej Consumer Products has been trading with a weak bias since mid-September. On the daily scale, the stock has been making lower-highs and lower-lows. With Monday's sharp fall, the stock has given a fresh sell signal, indicating a likely bearish bias as long as the stock trades below Rs 1,140 levels. The overall bias is likely to remain negative as long as the stock remains below Rs 1,200.  At present, the stock is seen seeking support around its 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) which stands at Rs 1,109; below which next key support stands at Rs 1,038. The medium-term chart shows that a sustained fall towards Rs 960 levels cannot be ruled out. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART    Hindustan Unilever (HUL)  Current Price: Rs 2,397  Downside Risk: 9.1%  Support: Rs 2,420; Rs 2,383  Resistance: Rs 2,500; Rs 2,525  HUL for the third time in the last five weeks is seen testing support around its 100-WMA, which stands at Rs 2,420. Recently, the stock had made a low at Rs 2,384. Key momentum oscillators the weekly and monthly chart seem to be in favour of the bears.  Therefore, as and when the support zone of 2,383 - Rs 2,420 is violated convincingly, the HUL stock could witness fresh downward pressure. As such, the stock can drift to Rs 2,178 levels. For now, upside for the stock seems capped around Rs 2,525; with near resistance likely around Rs 2,500-mark. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Dabur India  Current Price: Rs 505  Downside Risk: 12.3%  Support: Rs 476  Resistance: Rs 535  Dabur India stock is seen languishing below its 100-WMA for the last six trading weeks. The long-term chart suggests the stock seems on course to test support at Rs 476; below which a dip towards Rs 443 seems likely. The near-term bias is likely to remain tepid as long as Dabur trades below Rs 535. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Tata Consumer Products  Current Price: Rs 938  Downside Risk: 14.6%  Support: Rs 875  Resistance: Rs 981; Rs 1,115  Shares of Tata Consumer Products declined over 21 per cent in the last two months after the short-term trend turned negative for the stock. The near-term bias remains tepid, with overhead resistance at Rs 981 followed by major hurdle at Rs 1,115. On the downside, the stock seems on course to test its 200-WMA at Rs 840 levels; with interim support expected around Rs 875. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Marico  Current Price: Rs 605  Upside Potential: 18.2%  Support: Rs 603; Rs 590; Rs 570  Resistance: Rs 660  Marico stock seems to be relatively favourably placed on the charts. At present, the stock is seen testing support around its super trend line at Rs 603; below which near support for the stock exists at Rs 590. The long-term chart indicates that the bias at Marico counter is likely to remain positive as long as the stock holds above Rs 570 levels.  On the upside, the stock needs to break and sustain above Rs 660 (200-DMA) in order to gain strength. Break and sustained trade above the 200-DMA, can trigger a rally towards 715. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART