GIFT Nifty, Fed meet, Gold prices; all you need to know about markets today

Key triggers for market on August 01: The US Fed hinted at a likely rate cut in September citing progress in inflation; Bond yields dipped to near 4 per cent, Gold surged to a record high of $2,500.

Stock market preview, Thursday August 01, 2024: The Sensex and Nifty are likely to start today’s trading session on a positive note tracking gains in the US market, and the cheer from Q1 earnings season.

At 07:00 AM, GIFT Nifty futures quoted around 25,033 levels, hinting at a gap-up of around 50-odd points on the NSE Nifty 50 index.

In the last two sessions, the Sensex and the Nifty have climbed to record high levels, with the NSE benchmark now merely 50 points shy of the 25,000 milestone.

Global mood

The US market ended on a strong note as the Fed hinted of a likely rate cut in September, while leaving key benchmark rates unchanged at 5.25 – 5.5 per cent in the July meeting on Wednesday. 

The Federal Reserve told reporters that a September rate cut ‘could be on the table’ as it hinted it is nearer to easing monetary policy as it cited ‘some further’ progress on inflation.

NASDAQ zoomed 2.6 per cent to 17,599, the S&P 500 surged 1.6 per cent and Dow Jones added 0.2 per cent. 

The US 10-year bond yield dipped to 4.04 per cent – its lowest level since January 2024. Among commodities, Gold futures rallied to a record $2,500-mark, while WTI Crude Oil futures jumped to near about $79 levels.

Closer home in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 2.8 per cent, and Straits Times was down 0.2 per cent. On the other hand, Taiwan surged 1.8 per cent, and Kospi gained 0.2 per cent.

FII, DII trading activity

On Wednesday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold stocks to the tune of Rs 3,462.36 crore. Whereas, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 3,366.51 crore yesterday.

In the derivatives segment, FIIs net sold 14,663 contracts of index futures for a consideration of Rs 1,266.95 crore on July 31. FIIs net bought 9,660 contracts of Nifty futures; while, net sold 23,048 contracts of Bank Nifty futures, and 1,384 contracts of MidCap Nifty futures.

Pursuant to which, FIIs long-short ratio in index futures stood around 1.8:1. This ratio implies that foreign investors hold near about 2 long positions in index futures for every bet on the short side. The FIIs longs in index futures were 64.60 per cent.

Trading strategy for Thursday, 01 August - Should you be a buyer or seller in the Nifty, Bank Nifty today? Here’s what market experts recommend:

Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives, Angel One

The outlook for the benchmark Nifty remains positive as any declines are consistently met with buying interest and the recent developments have confirmed this trend. Once we firmly surpass the milestone of 25,000, a strong rally toward the 161.8 per cent retracement level of the previous week's swing at 25,340 is expected for the Nifty on an intermediate basis.

In addition to that, it is important to note that the lower band of consolidation at 24,800 should be considered intermediate support, followed by strong support at the 24,600-24,500 zone.

Om Mehra, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities

The Nifty is positioned above the 9-EMA, and the hourly charts presenting higher highs and higher lows suggest continuing the positive trend. The MACD indicator in the daily time frame shows the fast line on the verge of crossing the slow line. The immediate support remains at 24,850, followed by 24,770. A decisive break above the 25,000 mark could drive the index towards the 25,150-25,200 zones.

The Bank Nifty oscillated within a narrow range and struggled to surpass the 10-EMA. The 20-EMA, positioned around 51,880, is acting as a strong resistance. However, a move above 51,900 could trigger an upward direction towards the 52,350-52,500 zones. It is advised to wait for a decisive breakout above this level before considering entry for a higher move.

Dhupesh Dhameja, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities

On the hourly chart, the Nifty is holding strongly above the 10-20 moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sustaining above 60, indicating continued positive momentum. This close above the 24,900 mark for the first time after hitting an all-time high suggests active buyer interest, with a positive bias is expected as long as the index remains above 24,750.

The Nifty is currently trading within an inside bar range of 24,999 to 24,775, showing sideways momentum. A strong break above 25,000 will likely propel the index further up to 25,200, with strong support at 24,800 levels.

The Bank Nifty has broken and closed above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA). Investors are advised to adopt a ‘buy-on-dip’ strategy. As the index has regained above the 51,000 level and the RSI has established a strong base at 40, there will be buying interest as long as the index sustains above 51,000. The immediate resistance levels are at 51,900-52,000.

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates

Technically, the Nifty has formed a bullish candle on a daily basis but failed to break the psychological threshold of 25,000 levels. If the index remains above 25,000, the surge could extend to 25,200-25,300 levels. On the downside, 24,770 and 24,600 will provide significant support for the Nifty in the immediate term.

Whereas, the Bank Nifty is facing rejection from a falling trend line at 52,300 levels. Thus, 52,000-52,300 will serve as a resistance zone for the Bank Nifty, while 51,000 will work as strong support.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities

On the hourly chart, the Nifty has given a consolidation breakout. The RSI is in a bullish crossover on both the hourly and daily timeframes. A fresh leg of bullishness starts above 25,000, while support is placed at 24,900. If the index falls below this level, it might correct down towards 24,750.

Stocks in F&O ban period

Granules India and India Cements are the two stocks in the futures & options (F&O) ban period on Thursday. 

New listings 

Clinical Laboratory to list on the BSE SME platform today. The stock commanded an over 60 per cent premium over its issue price in grey market deals.

Similarly, Aprameya Engineering and Trom Industries to debut on the NSE SME platform on Thursday. Grey market premium suggests a likely 40 25 per cent listing gain for Aprameya and a bumper listing for Trom.

Primary market update

Ceigall India IPO opens for subscription on Thursday in the price band of Rs 380– Rs 401 per share. Here’s all you need to know about the issue. READ MORE

Dhariwalcorp IPO also opens for subscription today. The price band is Rs 102 -106 per share.

Akum Drugs, Bulkcorp International, Rajputana Industries, Ashapura Logistics and Sathlokhar Synergies E&C Global IPOs will close on Thursday. These issues had garnered up to 2 times, 50.1 times, 75 times, 14.8 times and 20.3 times subscription at the end of Day 2 of the offer period.