Govt bond yields to remain rangebound as traders watch US yields, RBI cues

Indian government bond yields are expected to remain in a narrow band on Thursday, with traders monitoring US yields and local central bank commentary for fresh triggers.
 

India's benchmark 10-year yield is likely to move in a 6.95 per cent-6.99 per cent range, following its previous close of 6.9746 per cent, a trader with a state-run bank said.
 

"As anticipated, the benchmark yield has become directionless this week, as we have not witnessed any major change in fundamentals, and today could also be a repeat of what we have seen in the last two days," the traders said.
 

US yields were largely unchanged, with the 10-year yield around 4.25 per cent, while the market anticipates the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each in 2024.
 

This even after the Fed slashed its forecast to only one cut of 25 bps this year, down from three projected in March, and comments from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker that he expects only one rate cut amid a "long glide" back to target for inflation.
 

The Reserve Bank of India will release the minutes of its latest policy meeting after market hours on Friday, and traders will eye further guidance on interest rate trajectory.
 

The central bank had maintained the status quo on rates and stance as it aims to meet the 4 per cent inflation target, even as two external members had voted for a change in stance as well as a rate cut.
 

The RBI on Wednesday said high food prices were impeding the recent easing in inflation, causing its efforts to rein in prices remain a "work in progress".
 

This comes a day after Governor Shaktikanta Das said India should avoid "adventurism" and continue to focus on bringing down inflation towards the target of 4 per cent despite the growing clamour to signal a pivot.

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