 "IndiGo Q1FY25 results today: Will it report profit or loss? Read preview")
IndiGo Q1 results preview, date, and time: InterGlobe Aviation-owned IndiGo Airlines will report its April-June quarter (Q1) results for financial year 2024-25 (FY25) later today, July 26, 2024.
The low-cost airline (LCC), which accounts for over 60 per cent market share of the Indian aviation industry, may report a double-digit decline in its net profit on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, according to brokerages' estimates.
This, they said, would be on a high base of last year and low supply amid engine woes. They also eye tepid passenger count and passenger load factor (PLF) growth due to Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport Terminal-1 crisis during quarter end.
On the bourses, IndiGo share price hit a record high of Rs 4,610 per share on June 10, 2024. IndiGo share has surged nearly 50 per cent so far this year, as against a 12 per cent rise in the benchmark indices.
On the bourses, IndiGo share price hit a record high of Rs 4,610 per share on June 10, 2024. IndiGo share has surged nearly 50 per cent so far this year, as against a 12 per cent rise in the benchmark indices.
Here's IndiGo Q1 2024 results preview:
Kotak Institutional Equities
The brokerage expects a 4 per cent Y-o-Y change in passenger count in the quarter. Weak passenger load factor (PLF) in May due to heatwave and impact of Delhi T-1 crisis during quarter-end may lead to lower Y-o-Y load factor at 87.5 per cent. Weak aircraft addition during the quarter are additional overhangs, it said.
Given this, the brokerage pegs IndiGo Q1FY25 net sales at Rs 17,851.2 crore, up 7 per cent Y-o-Y from Rs 16,683.1 crore reported in Q1FY24. Sequentially, it would be a 0.1 per cent rise from Rs 17,825.3 crore seen in Q4FY24.
Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation), however, may fall around 8.7 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 4,544 crore from Rs 4,974.5 crore. Over the March quarter of FY24, it would be a 14 per cent growth over Rs 3,993.5 crore.
Kotak said IndiGo Q1FY25 Ebitda margin may contract 437 basis points (bps) to 25.5 per cent (vs 29.8 per cent of Q1FY24).
Ebitda margin, however, has grown 305bps Q-o-Q from 22.4 per cent of Q4FY24.
Ebitda margin, however, has grown 305bps Q-o-Q from 22.4 per cent of Q4FY24.
"We expect RASK less CASK (excludes other income and forex) at Rs 0.53 per ASK, against Rs 0.8 per ASK in Q1FY24. The difference is based on lower fuel spreads (crude was falling through the base quarter), and continuation of large part of cost pressures seen in Q4FY24 (P&W issues, employee cost)," the brokerage said. RASK is revenue per available seat kilometer, while CASK is cost of available seat kilometer.
At the bottomline level, reported net profit could be 2,430.2 crore, down 21.4 per cent Y-o-Y from Rs 3,090.8 crore.
Sequentially, this would be 28.3 per cent Q-o-Q growth over Rs 1,894.8 crore.
Sequentially, this would be 28.3 per cent Q-o-Q growth over Rs 1,894.8 crore.
ICICI Securities
ICICI Securities expects IndiGo Q1FY25 net profit to decline 35.1 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 2,007 crore. This would mean Q-o-Q growth of just 6 per cent.
It estimates IndiGo Q1FY25 PLF at 88 per cent, leading to total sales revenue of Rs 18,606 crore.
Operationally, ICICI Securities factors in RASK of Rs 5.04 for IndiGo in Q1FY25 as against Rs 5.10 in Q1FY24. It also expects cost ex-fuel ASK of Rs 3.00, down slightly from Rs 3.04 in Q4FY24.
"Average aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices were 6.5 per cent lower in June, 2024, compared to May which has led to a 2 per cent Q-o-Q decline in average ATF prices in Q1FY25. We estimate fuel cost per ASK to be Rs 1.69 in Q1FY25E vs Rs 1.72 in Q4FY24. Expect We also expect profit before tax of around Rs 2,000 crore in Q1FY25E based on RASK-CASK spread of Rs 0.35," the brokerage said.
Nuvama Institutional Equities
Analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities anticipate IndiGo Q1FY25 EBITDAR to slip 9 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 4,739.6 crore despite robust demand and weakening of smaller airline players.
Yields, meanwhile, are expected to remain flat Y-o-Y at Rs 5.2 as supply constraints persist with over 70 aircraft staying grounded.
It expects IndiGo’s core Q1FY25 net profit to be Rs 2,325.1 crore as against Rs 3,087.2 crore in Q1FY24 and Rs 1,894.8 crore in Q4FY24.
Revenue is projected to grow 10 per cent Y-o-Y and 3 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 18,292.4 crore.
Elara Securities
This domestic brokerage sees IndiGo June quarter net profit at Rs 2,135.1 crore, down 28.2 per cent Y-o-Y but up 3.6 per cent Q-o-Q. Operationally, net sales is estimated at Rs 18,806 crore (up 12.7 per cent Y-o-Y/5.5 per cent Q-o-Q), and Ebitda at Rs 4,357.8 crore (down 10.3 per cent Y-o-Y/up 4.8 per cent Q-o-Q).