JSW Steel Q2 Preview: PAT likely to fall 96% YoY; volumes, realisation eyed

JSW Steel Q2 Preview: Steel behemoth JSW Steel will announce its financial results for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025 (Q2FY25) on Friday, October 25, 2025.

Analysts noted that Q2 is typically weaker than Q1 in terms of volumes and prices due to seasonal factors like the monsoon and maintenance shutdowns. This year, they said, is no different, with declining steel prices and above-average monsoon rains, along with flooding in various parts of India, leading to results that may fall short of expectations.

Additionally, last week, JSW Steel revealed that its subsidiary, Jsquare Electrical Steel Nashik Private Ltd, signed a share purchase agreement to acquire 100 per cent equity in Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel India Pvt Ltd (tkES India) for Rs 4,051.40 crore, pending closing adjustments. The acquisition will provide JSW with advanced technology and support its goal of enhancing its value-added product portfolio.

On the bourses, JSW Steel shares have risen over 13 per cent in the past six months, though they have declined about 1.5 per cent in the last month. In the past five days, the stock has dropped slightly over 2 per cent. 

At 1:11 PM, JSW Steel shares were trading 0.16 per cent lower at Rs 962.80 per share, compared to a 0.31 per cent increase in the BSE Sensex, which was at 80,472.63.

Given this, here’s what brokerages expect from JSW Steel Q2FY25 Results:

Phillip Capital

Analysts at Phillip Capital anticipate a modest improvement in standalone volumes for JSW Steel, projecting a 2 per cent increase. However, they expect realisations to decline 5 per cent sequentially, leading to a forecasted Ebitda of Rs 3,903.1 crore, down 43.4 per cent year-on-year. 

Analysts expect profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 1,008.7 crore, reflecting a whopping decline of 72 per cent Y-o-Y, with revenue expected to be Rs 31,339.1 crore, down 7.1 per cent Y-o-Y. The projected volume is 5.2 million tonnes.

Kotak Institutional Equities 

Kotak Institutional Equities shared a cautious outlook, estimating standalone volumes at 5.2 million tonnes, which represents a 3 per cent year-on-year decrease but a 3.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase. They forecast a 4.9 per cent decline in realisations on a sequential basis on account of weak regional prices.

“We estimate standalone Ebitda per tonne to decrease sequentially to Rs 7,44 per tonne (down 42 per cent Y-o-Y, down 11 per cent Q-o-Q) led mainly by lower realisations

Consequently, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities predict a PAT of Rs 658.7 crore, down 70 per cent Y-o-Y, with total revenue expected at Rs 41,836.1 crore, down 5 per cent Y-o-Y and Ebitda projected at Rs 5,107.6 crore, down 35 per cent Y-o-Y.

Elara Capital

Elara Capital provided a similarly cautious forecast, expecting revenue of Rs 41,752.3 crore, down 6.4 per cent Y-o-Y. They projected Ebitda at Rs 4,518.7 crore, which would reflect a decline of 42.7 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, analysts’ estimate for recurring PAT is quite stark, anticipated at Rs 103.4 crore, down 95.6 per cent Y-o-Y.