Sensex may target 80,000 levels post exit poll data. Check key levels here

The exit polls for the recently concluded Lok Sabha 2024 election will have a bearing on the Indian stock market sentiment on Monday, June 3.

The Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was gunning for 400+ seats at the start of the election campaign in earlier this year. 

A favourable outcome for the incumbent government post the election results, policy continuity in the form of a good budget and positive cues from global and domestic markets / economy, analysts said, will set the stage for a fresh bull-run in the Indian stock markets over the next few months.

Meanwhile, last week, equity benchmark indices cooled-down a bit after scaling records highs on Monday, May 27, 2024.

The S&P BSE Sensex that hit a high of 76,010 levels, eventually ended the week 2.5 per cent or 2,049 points, lower at 73,961 levels. Similarly, the NSE Nifty 50 index hit an all-time high at 23,111, but signed-off the week with a loss of 2.7 per cent, or 580 points, at 22,531.

In comparison, the NSE Nifty MidCap 150 and the Nifty SmallCap 250 indices corrected by 3 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively, from their record highs. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty, although it did not scale a new peak, managed to outperform the overall market, and ended the week on a flat note.

Going ahead, here's what the technical chart suggests for the BSE Sensex, Nifty 50 and the other key indices for the next few days, when markets open for trading on Monday, June 03, post exit polls results.

Sensex

Last close: 73,961

Bull case scenario: 8.1% upside

Bear case scenario: 6.9% downside

Key support: 72,240

Key resistance: 76,275

The S&P BSE Sensex can potentially rally up to 78,100 – 79,950 – 80,000 levels - indicating an upside potential of over 8 per cent on the BSE benchmark index, in case of a run-away rally. However, charts show the presence of a key hurdle around 76,275 levels. The Sensex will need to break and trade consistently above this level for this bullish case scenario to unfold.

However, in case, the BSE Sensex is unable to break past the 76,275 level, we may enter a consolidation range, wherein the support at 72,240 becomes a crucial level.

On the downside, sustained trade below 72,240, could see the index test 71,000 levels, or slide deeper down to 68,850 levels.

Nifty

Last close: 22,531

Bull case scenario: 7.1% upside

Bear case scenario: 6.6% downside

Key support: 22,150

Key resistance: 22,800; 23,050

The NSE Nifty 50 index seems to be testing support around its 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) and the super trend line, at 22,480 and 22,380 levels on the daily scale. Below which, a major support for the Nifty stands at 22,150 - its 100-DMA - a level it has not violated post the breakout in mid-November 2023.

Break and sustained trade below 22,150, could threaten a sharp fall towards the next major support; i.e. the 200-DMA, which stands way far at 21,050 levels - suggesting a worst case downside risk of up to 6.6 per cent from present levels. However, the daily chart does suggest possible interim support around 21,900 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

On the upside, the Nifty will need to clear two key hurdles at 22,800 and 23,050 levels, in order to rally to 23,585, which can even stretch to 24,125 levels.

Nifty MidCap 150

Last close: 19,309

Bull case scenario: 8% upside

Bear case scenario: 13.2% downside

Key support: 18,150; 18,530; 19,050

Key resistance: 19,500; 20,100

The Nifty MidCap 150 index has been in a structural bull-run post the breakout above its 100-DMA in late April 2023. Since then, the Nifty MidCap index has zoomed 68 per cent in the last 13 months. During these 13 months, the index has twice tested support at its 100-DMA and bounced back, hence the 100-DMA, which now stands at 18,150, remains a pivot point to the ongoing bullish trend.

For now, the Nifty MidCap index is seen testing support around its 20-DMA at 19,050 levels, below which the next significant support stands at 18,530 - its 50-DMA. In the worst case, a break of the 100-DMA support could trigger a slide towards the 200-DMA, which stands at 16,770 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

On the upside, the index needs to break and trade consistently above 19,500 levels, for fresh upside momentum. The long-term chart suggests potential targets for the Nifty Midcap 150 index at 20,100 and 20,840 levels.

Nifty SmallCap 250

Last close: 15,627

Bull case scenario: 11.8% upside

Bear case scenario: 11.9% downside

Key support: 15,000

Key resistance: 16,160

The Nifty SmallCap 250 index has consistently been facing resistance around the 16,000-mark for more than a month now. Despite repeated attempts the index has now been able to break above it. The long-term chart suggests, SmallCap index needs to break and sustain above 16,160 levels, in order to gain fresh upside ground.

On the upside, post the breakout, the Nifty SmallCap 250 index can potentially rally 16,815 and even higher 17,470 levels.

On the other hand, failure to break and trade above the key hurdle, could weaken the chart structure. As such, the support at 100-DMA becomes crucial. The 100-DMA, at present, stands at 15,000-mark. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

The SmallCap index had dipped below the 100-DMA in March, but somehow, managed to remain it. Long-term chart suggests, break and sustained trade below the 100-DMA, can result in a test of 200-DMA, which stands at 13,775.

Bank Nifty

Last close: 48,984

Bull case scenario: 8.3% upside

Bear case scenario: 8.8% downside

Key support: 48,300

Key resistance: 50,380

The Bank Nifty is likely to be a key determined in which way the market could swing. The Bank Nifty did not make a new high recently, and further long-term charts suggest presence of key resistance for the banking index at 50,380 levels. The Bank Nifty needs to topple this hurdle in order to enter a fresh bullish phase.

Break and sustained trade above 50,380 levels, can trigger a rally towards 51,900 and 53,050 levels - this indicates a potential upside of up to 8.3 per cent from present levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

On the flip side, break and sustained trade below 48,300 levels, can trigger a slide towards 46,200 and 44,660 levels.