Sensex, Nifty on exit poll high: Reasons for stock market rally on June 3

Sensex, Nifty on June 3: Exit polls released after the last phase of voting on June 1, 2024, unanimously predicted the clear majority for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party

Stock market hits record high on Monday, June 3: Indian stock markets hit record highs on Monday, June 3, 2024, after exit polls, over the weekend, forecasted a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The benchmark BSE Sensex leapt 2,777 points to hit a record high of 76,739 in morning deals, while the Nifty50 breezed past the 23,300-mark to claim a new lifetime high of 23,339.

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In the broader market, the BSE MidCap index surged over 3 per cent to touch a new record high of 44,561, and the BSE SmallCap hit 48,974, rising by a similar percentage.

With this, the market capitalisation of all the companies listed on the BSE hit a record $5.1 trillion-mark or Rs 424 trillion.

Here are the key reasons for the markets' sharp upmove today, June 3, 2024:

Exit Polls predict Modi 3.0: Exit polls released after the last phase of voting on June 1, 2024, unanimously predicted the clear majority for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and forecast the third term for PM Modi.

The average of all the Exit polls forecast 350-370 seats for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

"If the Lok Sabha results on June 4 materialise as per the Exit Poll direction, our country will likely enter a 'Golden Phase' of political stability and policy continuity. The Indian economy is in a sweet spot of growth and remains the land of stability against the backdrop of a volatile global economy," said analysts at Axis Securities.

Heavyweights drive sentiment: All 30 Sensex stocks and 45 Nifty50 stocks were trading in the positive zone on Monday, June 3. Reliance Industries, L&T, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Axis Bank were the top contributors towards the benchmarks' rally, surging between 3 per cent and 7 per cent.

Percentage-gain wise, Power Grid, Adani Ports, NTPC, BPCL, SBI, Shriram Finance, Adani Enterprises, L&T, ONGC, Axis Bank, and Ultratech Cement zoomed in the range of 5 per cent to 10 per cent.

Bond yields fall: Yield on 10-year government securities also fell 0.37 per cent to 6.96 per cent, boosting risk appetite for equities.

Global markets: Markets across Asia-Pacific were ruling higher after China's manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in nearly two years.

The Caixin survey showed manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in May from 51.4 the previous month, at its fastest pace since June 2022. It was also higher than a Reuters poll forecast of 51.5.

Hang Seng was quoting 2.4 per cent higher, Kospi was up 1.9 per cent, Nikkei 1.25 per cent, and ASX200 0.7 per cent.

Technical levels: After the huge gap-up opening, the Nifty can find support at 23,200 followed by 23,100 and 23,000. On the higher side, 23,650 can be an immediate resistance, followed by 23,700 and 23,800, said Deven Mehata, research analyst, Choice Broking.

"Traders holding the long position are advised to book profits after a gap up opening before the results of the general elections 2024. Investors are advised to hold a long position with a trailing stop loss of 23000 on a closing basis," he added.

As for Bank Nifty, the charts indicate that it may get support at 50,000, followed by 49,900 and 49,800. 

If the index advances further, 50,300 would be the initial key resistance, followed by 50,500 and 50,700, Mahata said.