Weekly Outlook: Nifty eyes 25,550; but this chart pattern can derail rally

Market outlook for Sept 02 - 07, 2024: The Nifty seems favourably placed on the short-term chart; but formation of 'Hanging Man' pattern on the monthly chart may be a reason to worry going ahead.

Last week, the NSE Nifty 50 index not only ended the week with a gain of 1.7 per cent, but also the month 1.1 per cent higher. In the process, the Nifty has rallied 3.6 per cent or 868 points in the last three weeks, and surged 12.9 per cent in the last three straight months.

The Nifty 50 index has now registered a new summit at 25,268, and has hit a new life-time high for the 54th time in the calendar year 2024. The Nifty has zoomed over 16 per cent so far this year.

The outlook for Nifty remains positive, with the index trading firmly above its short- and long-term moving averages, and key momentum oscillators in favour of the bulls. 

The Nifty seems on course to rally towards the 26,000-mark in the near-term, with some resistance expected around 25,550 levels. The short-term bias is likely to remain upbeat as long as index holds above the psychological 25,000-mark. Near support for the index can be expected around 25,150.

This Candlestick pattern can be a reason to worry...

Going ahead in the month of September, one particular reason to worry is the formation of 'Hanging Man' pattern on the monthly chart. In general, formation of a 'Hanging Pattern' after a rally tends to hint of a likely reversal.

The lower-end of the 'Hanging Man' head indicates 25,030 as key pivot for September. Break and sustained trade below the same can trigger a price correction.

Key levels to watch out on the Nifty in a nutshell:

Support: 25,150; 25,030; 25,000

Resistance: 25,550

Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex has surged 14 per cent so far in 2024. As per the quarterly Fibonacci chart, the Sensex is seen testing resistance at its 38.2 per cent retracement at 82,638 levels. Break and trade above the same shall open the doors for further upside to 83,750 and 84,865 in the month of September.

Interim resistance for the Sensex can be expected around 83,390, 84,025 and 84,535 levels.

The near-term bias for Sensex is likely to remain positive as long as the index holds above 81,750 levels. Below which, support for the BSE benchmark index can be anticipated around 81,340, 80,700 and 80,200 levels.

Key levels to watch out on the BSE Sensex:

Support: 81,750; 81,340; 80,700; 80,200

Resistance: 82,638; 83,390; 84,025; 84,535