 "Weekly Outlook: Nifty, Sensex near key hurdles; Bank Nifty can rally 5%")
The NSE Nifty 50 index has surged nearly 4 per cent from its recent low of 23,894 in the last three weeks. The Nifty is now within striking distance of its key resistance on the daily scale, which stands at 24,971.
The Nifty is seen quoting barely 1 per cent shy from its life-time high of 25,078 hit on August 01, 2024.
Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex has gained 3.6 per cent from its recent low of 78,296. The BSE benchmark is 1.3 per cent or 1,043 points away from its summit at 82,129.
Can the market extend its pullback this week, and will the Sensex and Nifty be able to scale new highs? Here's what the chart suggests:
Nifty
Last close: 24,823
More From This Section
Upside Potential: 2.2%
Support: 24,860; 24,600; 24,550
Resistance: 24,971; 25,000
Technically, the Nifty is seen trading with a positive bias as the index holds firmly above its key moving averages across time-frames. Further, shorter-term moving averages are seen firmly placed above the longer-term moving averages; thus indicating underlying strength in the trend.
However, the recent 4 per cent gain on the Nifty seems to be lacking momentum as indicated by the Di (Directional Index), which is seen sloping downwards as bulls and bears struggle to gain the upper-hand. Having, said that key momentum oscillators remain favourably poised, thus giving a slight edge to the bulls versus the bears.
For now, 24,971 levels remains the key hurdle for the Nifty. Break and sustained trade above the same can trigger a rally towards 25,000-mark and a potential new high. Long-term chart suggests that the Nifty can scale 25,370 levels in the near-term.
On the other hand, sustenance above 24,860 is the key for the Nifty to extend the existing pullback rally. Failure to hold the same, can trigger a corrective move towards 24,600 - 24,550 levels in the week ahead. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART
Sensex
Last close: 81,086
Upside Potential: 1.5%
Support: 80,500
Resistance: 81,750; 82,260
With a high at 82,129, the BSE Sensex seems to have hit a crucial resistance on the quarterly Fibonacci chart; which indicated possible resistance at 82,260 levels. Hence, the bias until September end seems of limited upside as long as the Sensex does not take out this hurdle.
For now, the BSE index may test 81,750 levels on the upside in the near-term. Break and sustained trade above the same is crucial for the index to attempt an upside breakout.
On the other hand, failure to clear the 81,750 hurdle could see the Sensex slip back to 80,500 levels; below which a dip to 79,900 seems likely.
Bank Nifty
Last close: 50,933
Upside Potential: 5%
Support: 50,700; 50,400; 50,100
Resistance: 51,450; 51,935
The Bank Nifty after sheer underperformance in the last two months seems to have found support around its 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average), which now stands at 50,100 levels and the 100-DMA (Daily Moving Average) at 49,960 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART
The near-term bias for Bank Nifty is likely to remain positive as long as the index holds these two key moving averages. Interim support for the index can be expected around 50,700, wherein the 20-DMA lies, and 50,400 levels.
On the upside, the Bank Nifty is quoting near its 50-DMA hurdle, which stands at 51,450, above which resistance is seen at 51,935. Beyond these hurdles, the Bank Nifty can potentially rally to 53,500 levels on the upside.