A race for the high seas' dominion

In light of rich nations' efforts to control the high seas in search of minerals, India must swiftly catch up in the economic, technological, and strategic spheres

Oceans make human life on Earth possible by being the primary regulator of Earth’s climate, absorbing, storing, and distributing heat around the globe. They are a major source of oxygen and act as a carbon sink, supporting an incredible marine biodiversity.

The high seas are parts of oceans and seas that are beyond national jurisdictions and economic zones, representing the global commons, a common heritage of mankind. The high seas encompass an expanse 1.7 times that of the inhabited landmass of Earth, and constitute a staggering 95 per cent of the overall volume of seas and oceans.

The blue economy offers vast riches. According to an estimate, the current annual global trade in ocean-based goods and services is $2.5 trillion, nearly 3 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP). According to a 2020 UN Food and Agriculture Report, the oceans could provide two-thirds of the proteins needed to feed the world in the future, with the high seas holding an even bigger treasure trove. The risk is that uncontrolled human activity in the high seas could seriously impact ocean ecology. However, the lure of lucre is winning and the gold rush has begun. Technological advancement and government subsidies are making the high seas increasingly accessible, fuelling the race on the three dimensions — economic, technological, and strategic.

Economic: Any nation can fish in the high seas. In economic terms, it means billions of dollars and more. China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Spain and Indonesia have dominated fishing in the high seas but increasingly other nations are venturing into it. China, with 1,900 vessels, has the largest fleet for high seas fishing. While tuna, found in abundance in the Indian ocean, and sharks are among the highly prized species, the high seas are also a storehouse of an untold number of new species whose genetic code could be the source of new medicines and new biotechnological research. For example, the species of microbes found in the Mariana Trench have the potential to synthesise new enzymes and treat anti-microbial resistance.

The race is also for the minerals and metals that the high seas store. At stake are millions and millions of tonnes of polymetallic nodules , polymetallic sulphides, cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts and copper, gold, rare earths and more. The mineral excavation can be divided into two stages — exploration and mining. Since its inception in 1982, the International Seabed Authority (ISA), has thus far granted 31 contracts for exploration, covering 1.5 million square km of seabed. Again, China leads with five contracts. The ISA has also set up a deep-sea training and research centre in China. Having carried out exploration, many are waiting for mining permission. New technologies are being developed to address the immense pressure at these depths, where even a solid iron ball would get crushed below 3,700 metre. Initially, mining is planned in relatively shallow seabed at the depth of 1,000 metre or less. Environmental and ecological concerns have prevented the ISA from giving out permissions for extraction. But after decades of protracted negotiations with environmentalists and contractors on opposite sides, it seems that the ISA’s hand is forced by a  provision in the UN system. Now, it is expected that mining permissions will be given this year. The recent High Seas Treaty, approved by the UN in June 2023, is expected to bring some order to this loosely regulated area. The agreement signals the nations’ willingness to start mining.

Technological: Since the deep sea requires new technologies, a technological race is on. Capabilities to send unmanned and manned submersibles to the deep sea is crucial. The US was the first to send manned submersible to a depth of 10, 925 metre in 2012. China went sub-10,000 metre in 2020, and thereafter repeated this multiple times. Japan, Russia and France have known manned submersibles, which can go to 6,000-6,500 metre. India is planning a manned submersible to a depth of 6,000 metre, but currently has capability for only an unmanned submersible. Technologies for environmentally sustainable ways of mining, which would reduce plume from mineral dust during mining need to be developed.

Strategic: Over the next few decades, high seas’ domination will signify global influence and is, therefore, strategically crucial. Nations want to corner global decision-making structures relating to the high seas. The US and China eye the high seas with long-term strategic perspective. The high seas offer opportunities to China to position dual-purpose ships with long-range capability in strategic locations in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans. India should strive to retain its primacy in the Indian Ocean and not let China dilute this. Given that 80 per cent of world trade is conducted through the Indian Ocean, the physical presence of Chinese flag ships has an impact on the marine security of the region. The US and Western world also eye deep-sea mining as an opportunity to break the stranglehold of China on critical minerals and rare earths, especially considering recent restrictions imposed by China on gallium and germanium.

India has a lot at stake, with the high seas of the Indian Ocean being nearly 19 times its landmass and nearly 25 per cent of the total expanse of high seas. The areas allotted to India for mineral exploration, a 75,000 square km stretch in the Central Indian Ocean Basin and 10,000 square km on the South West Indian Ridge, have estimated polymetallic nodule resource potential of 380 million tonnes of nickel, copper cobalt and manganese. But India does not have the capability to mine it. We need to catch up in the economic, technological, and strategic race for high seas’ dominion. This would require a whole-of-government approach, as no one ministry alone can address multiple dimensions involved.

Leveraging its innovation ecosystem, India must champion technologies not only for exploitation but also for sustainable exploitation. This would require opening the deep-sea sector, similar to Space exploration. Exploring the high seas for marine and mineral wealth, beyond the Indian Ocean could also be considered along with bilateral and multilateral collaboration with like-minded nations, including QUAD. The next logical step is to establish a task force that can promptly submit a roadmap for the high seas over the next 25 years.

The writer is former defence secretary and  distinguished visiting professor, IIT Kanpur