A twisted electoral puzzle

This election might have been a no-contest for the Democrats, but given its complicated electoral system, it is not

US presidential elections attract interest for reasons pithily described by Pierre Trudeau: “(Coexisting with the USA) is like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered the beast, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.”

America is the world’s third-largest nation (population of 340 million); it has the largest economy ($28 trillion, 2023). US military spending was around $916 billion in 2023, or 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product or GDP, and around 40 per cent of global defence spending. It prints the world’s reserve currency and is the largest or second-largest trading partner of most nations.

America’s electoral system is complicated. Each of the 50 states has two senators with the Vice-President (the “101st member of the Senate”) having a deciding vote in the 100-member Chamber. Senators are elected by popular vote. The lower House of Representatives (HoR) has 438 members, with the number of constituencies per state allotted based on population size. HoR elections are by popular vote.

The President (and VP) are elected by a translation of popular vote to electoral votes (EVs) — with one EV per Senator and one EV per HoR. That’s a total of 538 EVs, which means a President must win 270 votes. Each state (and Washington DC) votes for its choice of President. Depending on which ticket wins the popular vote in a given state, the HoR and senators are deemed to have “voted” for that ticket. That is, if the Republicans win the popular vote in Texas, the EVs of two Texas senators and 40 Texas HoR will be allotted to the Republican candidate, regardless of the political affiliations of those 42 individuals.

The US is effectively a two-party system. The Democratic Party has won the popular vote seven times in the last 10 presidential elections (1984-2020). But there have been five Republican Administrations and Five Democratic administrations. This is because the popular vote is very poorly reflected in the presidential election system.

Populations are not divided equally between states, yet each state gets two senators regardless of population size. This is a constitutional feature designed to preserve the federal nature of the country — it’s the “United States” after all.

The HoR allocations further amplify disparities between popular votes and EVs. Alaska (population 700,000 ) and Wyoming (population 570,000 ) have three seats each in the HoR. California (pop 39 million) has 55 seats, Texas (31 million) has 40, New York (19 million) has 28. Puerto Rico, which is a “territory” not a state, with 3 million plus US citizens, has zero HoRs and zero Senators. If you work out population ratios assuming Alaska/ Wyoming as the norm for representation, Puerto Rico “should” have 18 HoR seats (plus 2 senators). California should have 150-odd HoR and Texas 125 HoR.  The vote of a resident of Alaska or Wyoming is heavily over-weighted.

Aside from this, states reset their HoR constituency boundaries (each state has a popularly elected administration) and both parties gerrymander in the states they control, to improve electoral prospects. States also have different rules for voting registration and processes, which can lead to voter-suppression.

The Democrats tend to win states with high-density populations, like New York and California, by large margins. Hence, they win the popular vote more often. The Republicans tend to win low-density states like Alaska and Wyoming, which is why they won the Presidency in 2000, and 2016, despite losing the popular vote both times.

In 2024, one candidate is 78 years old, and a convicted felon with more criminal charges against him in ongoing cases, and he’s been found civilly liable for sexual assault. He’s been fact-checked for telling over 30,000 public falsehoods. His businesses have declared bankruptcy six times. In a February 2024 survey of 154 scholars by the American Political Science Association, he was rated the Worst-Ever US President. 

The other candidate is a 59-year-old woman of colour with no black marks on her record. She’s been part of an administration that has pulled off a near-miraculous economic turnaround.

In a straight popular vote contest, it might have been a no-contest. But it’s not, due to the weird US electoral system. Given the stakes, the world will be watching this contest with bated breath.