'Affordable' electric air taxis

They may not only be greener than battery-powered cars but also have the potential to upend the real estate market

Competitively priced electric air taxi rides can significantly change urban living, as well as real estate benchmarks. There is rising interest in this segment from the aviation industry, the automotive sector, and property developers, among others.

“I think we are going to see interest from real estate operators accelerate over the next few years,” JoeBen Bevirt, founder and chief executive officer of Joby Aviation, told BloombergNEF. The California-headquartered Joby plans to launch electric air taxi services in 2025. It manufactures an electric vertical takeoff and landing, or eVTOL, aircraft — capable of carrying four passengers in addition to the pilot — and will run the service.

“Real estate is the world’s largest global asset class, and it is all about location, location, location. With eVTOLs, you can move seamlessly from one location to another,” he said.

The electric air miles race includes other eVTOL companies like Lilium, which aims for the first piloted test flights later this year, Volocopter, and Archer Aviation. Eve Urban Air Mobility, a subsidiary of Brazil’s Embraer, holds orders for nearly 3,000 eVTOLs, with the aircraft expected to enter into service in 2026. Hyundai’s company, Supernal, aims to begin initial test flights of its electric air taxi by the end of the year and launch service in 2028. Japan’s SkyDrive began production in March at the plant owned by the official production partner — Suzuki Motor Company. Cumulative outstanding orders for eVTOLs already number over 10,000.

Self-driven or autonomous eVTOLs would be next. “We believe the quickest way to bring eVTOL flight to the public is with a piloted aircraft, as currently regulatory agencies don’t have a path to certify fully autonomous aircraft,” Mr Bevirt said.

In terms of emissions, they could beat battery-powered cars. “Our target is to have lower grams of CO2 equivalent per passenger kilometre (or mile) — on a life-cycle basis — than riding an electric car on the ground, and yet you are able to get to your destination more than five times faster,” Mr Bevirt said.

India’s record auctions

India awarded a record 20 gigawatts of capacity in clean energy auctions in the first quarter of 2024, compared with 1.2 Gigawatts (Gw) in the same period last year, according to the most recent update from BNEF. The top winners during the quarter were JSW Energy, Avaada and ReNew.

The share of complex auctions — involving multiple technologies — has been rising, and dominated the first quarter awards, at 9.7 Gw. Standalone solar auctions totalled 9.2 Gw, while wind projects added up to 1.2 Gw.

In terms of cumulative renewables capacity auctions (completed and announced), India is next only to China, according to data compiled by BNEF, with Germany, Denmark and France rounding out the top five.

India’s cumulative installed solar capacity has crossed 80 Gw, and accounts for almost a fifth of the total installed capacity of about 440 Gw.

Energy storage

Long-duration energy storage — defined by BNEF as energy storage that delivers more than six hours of charge and discharge — is a growing market.

An advanced compressed air energy storage solution offered by Hydrostor looks fairly cost-competitive. “The cost to add one hour of storage is about $50 per kilowatt-hour of storage capacity, which would compare to $200-300+ for a lithium-ion system on a fully installed basis,” said Curtis VanWalleghem, CEO and co-founder of the company. “When you look at the total value proposition: Low cost, long life, high performance, low impact, and easy to site and permit...we think it is a very compelling alternative.”

Hydrostor has more than a dozen projects in the pipeline, with two projects at an advanced stage in Australia and in California. Key investors in the company include Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.

Solar panel prices

The price of solar panels has been falling and creating challenges for countries trying to seed a domestic manufacturing industry.

The current slump is “irrational” and there’s only a small probability it will continue, Jinko Solar Chairman Li Xiande said in a joint presentation hosted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Chiming in, Trina Chairman Gao Jifan said: “The price of photovoltaic modules is currently at a low level, and there’s limited room for further decline.”

Importing cheap panels enables ultra-competitive solar power generation, but there is a tradeoff that leaves manufacturers and project developers standing on different sides of the fence. A group of solar manufacturers in the US have sought additional tariffs aimed at the solar supply chain in Southeast Asia. New tariffs may inflate module prices in the US to about three times the price paid on the global free market, BNEF estimates. This would increase the cost of building solar projects in the US and hurt solar developers.

The writer is a New York-based senior editor – global policy for BloombergNEF, vgombar@bloomberg.net