Cambodian template for Bangladesh elections

The 2024 general election will clearly take place in an environment full of geopolitical and economic challenges, with the US seeing the China challenge in Bangladesh

As Bangladesh moves closer to the general election due in January 2024, violence and instability in the country are set to increase. Nearly 10,000 opposition leaders and activists were arrested after the October 28 rally of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Media reports suggest that the prisons have no room left.  

The opposition BNP had been demanding that the Sheikh Hasina government resign so that elections could be held under a caretaker government when violence broke out. With the arrest of its top leaders, the ruling Awami League, which is seeking re-election for a fourth consecutive term in January 2024, seems to be working according to plan. 

Indeed, some observers of Bangladesh politics believe that the Awami League is following the template of the Cambodian election under Hun Sen in July this year. Before the election, Hun Sen arrested almost all the top leaders of the only credible opposition party, the Candlelight Party. Nearer the election, he disqualified the party from participating. 

On July 23, Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (CPP) declared a landslide victory in an election in which 17 smaller parties, which had no popular support, had participated. Even before the July vote, Hun Sen had proudly announced that after winning the election, he would hand over power to his son Hun Manet, which he did on August 22. However, he remains the power behind the throne, holding the post of the party chief, most senior member of the Senate and Chairman of the Privy Council. 

US visa restrictions in Cambodia against "individuals who undermined democracy" and "a pause on certain foreign assistance programs" came after the rigged elections. The US has now made similar threats against Bangladesh, but well before the polls. 

Yet Sheikh Hasina cannot allow the BNP, her only credible challenger, to contest under a neutral caretaker government. She is allegedly trying to split the BNP and weaken its leadership. After the October 28 rally,12 of the top leaders of the BNP have been arrested while others have gone into hiding. The party's chairperson, Begum Khalida Zia, is under house arrest. She suffers from a cocktail of diseases that prevent her from campaigning even if she were released. With her son and the acting chairman of the BNP, Tarique Rahman, in exile in the UK, perhaps the Awami League hopes that the demoralised BNP rank and file will desert. So far, it has been unable to recruit any leader of stature from the BNP to split the party.

Curiously, the Bangladesh Election Commission (EC) has recently granted recognition to three relatively new parties: the Trinamool Bangladesh Nationalist Party (TBNP) in February and the Bangladesh National Movement (BNM) and the Bangladesh Supreme Party (BSP), an Islamist outfit, in July. BNP leaders claim that plans are afoot to prepare the ground for splitting the party and showcase a "multi-party" election with these parties, even if the BNP does not participate or is prevented from doing so.

Will a victorious Sheikh Hasina continue to follow the Cambodian template after that? Hun Sen firmly fell into China's lap after successfully hijacking the Cambodian elections. Despite international criticism, he gave the Chinese their second global military base (the first one is in Djibouti) at Ream on the Gulf of Thailand, close to the strategically significant Strait of Malacca. Its economic dependence on China has made Phnom Penh beholden to Beijing. It has acted as China's cat's paw in ASEAN -- from sabotaging statements critical of Beijing to opposing naval exercises by ASEAN countries in the South China Sea.

Would Sheikh Hasina's victory in 2024 also increase her dependence on China? There is speculation that China will eventually swing the Teesta River Management Project (currently on hold), get a contract to expand the BNS Sheikh Hasina Submarine Base at Pekua in Cox's Bazar. Dhaka may even re-examine the Sonadia deep-sea port project, which was cancelled ostensibly for environmental reasons but may likely have been the victim of geopolitical competition between India and China. 

India may hope that it will benefit from Hasina's re-election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently inaugurated three major infrastructure projects jointly with Prime Minister Hasina – the Akhaura-Agartala rail link, the Khulna-Mongla port link, and Unit-II of the Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant at Rampal – raising India's stakes in Bangladesh and indirectly in the 2024 general election outcome. 
 

However, being a smaller economy, India may be outmanoeuvred, and China may reap more overall geopolitical benefits. Already, a Russia-China axis seems to be emerging, with Bangladesh becoming a part of their de-dollarisation efforts. The Bangladesh Bank has consented to proceed with Chinese loan offers in its own currency, the Yuan, as a cost-saving alternative to dollar-denominated financing. Dhaka also intends to repay US $12 Billion for a nuclear plant built by Russia through China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System. This was launched in 2015 to elevate the Yuan and erode the dominance of the dollar. It is convenient for Russia, which has been banned from the rival SWIFT payment system. 

The 2024 general election will clearly take place in an environment full of geopolitical and economic challenges. While the US sees the China challenge in Bangladesh, India strangely seems on the same page as its geo-strategic adversary. Meanwhile, the governor of Bangladesh Bank told the media, "Throughout my 36 years in civil and public service, I have never witnessed an economic crisis of this magnitude." Forex reserves are falling rapidly, inflation, especially in food items, is oppressive, and established companies are fleeing the country. 

The general consensus is that Sheikh Hasina's return to power is uncertain in any free and fair election. But return, she will – perhaps with succession plans in place for her son, who was given a cabinet ministership while residing in the US, and daughter, elected as the Director of South East Asia of the World Health Organization based in Delhi. Therefore, how India plays its cards in the Bangladesh election will have far-reaching consequences.