COP28: A mirror to pledges and promises

With climate change-induced disasters multiplying, the Dubai summit cannot afford to be just a talk shop

Climate negotiations have three purposes — to set the agenda and negotiate targets, facilitate their implementation, and finally, support monitoring and enforcement in a timely manner. If COP26 in Glasgow set the agenda for net-zero carbon emission targets, the upcoming 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) in Dubai must focus on implementing and enforcing commitments. The year 2023 — being the hottest on record, with droughts, floods, heatwaves, and wildfires hitting the headlines world over — is issuing warning after warning about the scale of devastation and the potential loss of economic value if the world does not take more urgent action. This is why the global stocktake at COP28 is crucial — to assess the promises made, actions taken, and the difficult path ahead.

The Global Stocktake (GST), which lies at the heart of the 2015 Paris Agreement, is a two-year process to periodically review collective progress towards limiting global warming to 2°C. The first stocktake will culminate at COP28. Think of the GST as a collective report card for countries. Will it be “knives out” with nations blaming one another for the results while the planet lies in peril? To avoid such a scenario, the GST’s core objective should be to ensure climate justice and accountability of actions.

To be relevant for the Global South and India, we envision the GST to deliver on the following based on our analysis of all country submissions. First, account for the pre-2020 gaps — climate pledges made before 2020 that haven’t been fulfilled — by holding developed countries responsible. We found that this sentiment was echoed in 20 per cent of the GST submissions, which as a group represent 80 per cent of the world’s population. Second, recognise the role of carbon markets and sustainable lifestyles for mitigating emissions and provide best practices that can benefit India and the world. Third, accelerate finance flows by identifying the sources, types and quantum of funds needed and their timelines. Finally, enhance technology partnerships and collaborations between countries for the co-development and co-ownership of promising technologies because hand-me-down solutions won’t work for emerging economies.

COP28 must deliver on five key pillars of climate justice and walk the talk.

First, accountability for the past and for the future. A recent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) found that developed countries, which are the largest historical emitters, are not on track to meet 2030 emission reduction targets. In fact, they will overshoot their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by emitting around 3.7 gigatonnes of extra carbon dioxide in 2030. This will have direct implications on the carbon budget left for developing countries to grow their economies. Developed countries, therefore, must enhance their NDCs in this critical decade and do more than the global emission reduction average required to limit warming to 1.5°C. They can’t just bet on future action, but should chart out year-on-year emission reduction trajectories towards net-zero targets and stay committed to the Paris Agreement. Developed countries must not repeat the failures of the pre-2020 climate regime, such as non-participation, grey accounting procedures, and unfulfilled pledges.

Second, deliver on loss and damage. India should echo the call for a standalone fund where developed nations are the primary contributors and developing nations the recipients (not just Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries). COP28 must deliver on the loss and damage fund and decide on its structure and terms. This fund should deliver grants rather than loans, and be guided by the core principles of equity and historical responsibility. Further, a Global Vulnerability Index must be developed to map critical vulnerabilities and plan strategies to build the resilience of communities and nations at large. A glaring gap in addressing loss and damage is climate “event attribution”. A Global South-led research consortium can enrich the climate science needed for attributing disasters to specific causes and build research capacity in developing countries.

Third, build adaptation and resilience. Early warning systems are the lowest-hanging fruit against disasters. Help developing countries build a comprehensive multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS) for better preparedness and invest in nature-based solutions (NbS), such as agroforestry and forest management, to build resilience against extreme climate events. In fact, NbS has the potential to meet one-third of the climate mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement, save $57 billion in flooding damages every year, and provide additional benefits worth $170 billion through a variety of ecosystem services.

Fourth, scale the finance needed and delivered. None of the above recommendations can be implemented without finance. COP28 must establish a common definition of climate finance and shift the narrative to “trillions of dollars” instead of “billions” for the quantum of new collective quantified goal on climate finance required, while also prioritising the fulfilment of previous financial targets. Further, regulation in developing countries should create a conducive environment for green finance to facilitate the linking of domestic and international capital with investment opportunities. Investing in developing countries is often seen as more of a risk than it actually is. Addressing these perceptions is crucial to lowering the cost of finance and scaling up capital flows.

Fifth, focus on securing the energy transition. Given that current supply chains of critical minerals and renewables are currently concentrated, at COP28, countries must push for a global architecture to govern alternative fuels such as green hydrogen and clean technologies, and push back against protectionist regimes of developed countries. To scale up renewable energy, individuals across the value chain need to be trained. India would benefit from multilateral collaborations on education and training, and partnerships between leading universities to mutually prepare courses on building the required hard and soft skills for the energy transition.

All eyes are on COP28 to hold up a mirror to promises and pledges. With geopolitics in turmoil and climate change-induced disasters multiplying, summits like the one to be held in Dubai cannot afford to be mere talk shops. To avoid emitting more hot air, a hard assessment of past responsibilities, current realities, and future possibilities should guide the deliberations.

The writers are, respectively, CEO and programme lead at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water