Does NDA expansion indicate vulnerability?

The BJP has realised that in some states, like Bihar and Maharashtra, more than the Modi factor, it needs social alliances for 2024

The BJP's response to the formation of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, is an acknowledgement that the Opposition alliance poses a cogent threat. It was compelled to showcase a 38-party grouping as an expanded National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The BJP may think it has trumped the 26 parties in the Opposition's INDIA alliance, with a larger number of parties in its alliance. However, one might be left wondering about the significance of such allies.

Of the 37 other parties, including the factions of Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the two factions of the Lok Janshakti Party, ten did not even participate in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Of the remaining 23 parties, 8 won just nine seats in total. They received less than one per cent of the total votes polled. Why, then, has an alliance with them become necessary for the BJP, which had single-handedly won nearly 38 per cent of the popular vote?

Clearly, the BJP has realised that in some states, it needs social alliances for 2024 more than the Modi factor. Bihar and Maharashtra are crucial states that contributed to the BJP's overwhelming majority in 2019. However, the Modi factor would never determine the electoral outcome in these states even before the formation of the Opposition's new alliance.

In Bihar, the BJP hopes to form a caste-based alliance to take on an Opposition dominated by the political partnership of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal (United) – JD(U). The BJP hopes to compensate for its JD(U) loss by recruiting the two Lok Janshakti Party factions and Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustan Awam Morcha. In Maharashtra, strategy dictates the need to mobilise regional chauvinism, and the BJP has, therefore, split existing parties representing Maharashtra and Marathi pride- the Shiv Sena and the NCP.

Realising that "Modi magic" alone will not work in many other states, the BJP is desperate to expand alliances in them. It has no allies to speak of in South India except the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu. Despite its strong presence in Karnataka, cohesion within the state party has become uncertain after it lost the legislative assembly elections. Even two months after this, it has yet to decide who will be the leader of the Opposition In the state. In Telangana, the BJP is desperately seeking an understanding with K Chandrasekhar Rao's Bharat Rashtra Samithi, with which it was at loggerheads till now. In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has the choice of alliance with two parties – Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party and Jaganmohan Reddy's YSR Congress, both of whom are in confrontation with the Congress in Andhra Pradesh. This suits the BJP, but it has not yet chosen an electoral ally in Andhra.

The wooing of tribal voters is yet another indicator that the BJP has realised its electoral vulnerability. In Jharkhand, the alliance of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal is much stronger than the BJP's alliance with the All Jharkhand Students Union Party (AJSU-P). As a result, the BJP has been forced to bring back Babulal Marandi as the state party president. Marandi left the party in 2002 and rejoined it only in 2020. The alienation of Jharkhand tribals began when the BJP gave prominence to non-tribals. After coming to power in the state in 2014, it chose a non-tribal, Raghubar Das, as its chief minister. The party lost the 2019 election in Jharkhand– winning only two of the 28 seats (of 81) reserved for tribals.

The prospect of losing the tribal vote, 27 per cent in Chhattisgarh and 14 per cent in Madhya Pradesh, worries the party. In Karnataka, it could not win any tribal seats. In the northeast, this has become more difficult with the ongoing strife between "Hindu Meiteis" and "Kuki Christians". Its communalism and governance failure in Manipur could also have a fallout in the other northeast states.

The recent appointment of outsiders, who are strong representatives of their community or caste, as state party presidents also shows the desperation of the BJP before the 2024 elections. There was a time when, to reach such high positions, people had to showcase their services to Hindutva. Now Sunil Jakhar, a lifelong Congressman who jumped ship only last year, has been appointed party president in Punjab; D Purandeshwari, NT Ramarao's daughter and former member of the TDP and the Congress as well as a minister in the Manmohan Singh government, has been made party president in Andhra Pradesh; and Samrat Choudhary, who was originally in the RJD and then in JD(U), has appointed its Bihar chief.

The expanded NDA alliance will be of virtually no use in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Delhi, where the BJP will go it alone. In these states, the Modi factor may still be useful. But the Modi factor will be secondary where the BJP is forced to pay second fiddle to the regional parties and their leaders.

Once, the hype about Modi was "Ek akela sab par bhaari (One man is enough to take on the Opposition)". Today, "Brand Modi" stands diluted, and the party is afraid of political alternatives to Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerging on the horizon. The disqualification of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi from contesting elections happened when the nation was already in election mode.

The loss of the Karnataka election, which was framed as "Modi vs. everyone else," dimmed the prime minister's charisma. The damage was sought to be compensated by his hobnobbing with world leaders -- in the USA, France, Egypt and the UAE. However, all that has been undone with a single shocking video of two Kuki women being paraded naked and gang-raped in Manipur. His belated outrage appears less than credulous.

With the BJP realising the inadequacy of its one-man band, it will try harder to pull in a variety of minor accompanists adept at playing different instruments. But whether they will harmonise as an orchestra or not, only the elections will tell.