How the government lost the script on MSP to farmers

The Punjab farmers' agitation is growing, and the two organisations that were trying to upstage the Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) are no longer in control. An agitation, perhaps scripted to end in a compromise, is unexpectedly rewriting itself.

The Centre wanted to settle the issue of minimum support price (MSP) after having made a promise to do so in 2020 to end the farmers' movement against three farm laws. A resolution before the general election would insulate the government from criticism about a breach of promise.

Its opportunity came when two organisations marginal to the earlier agitation– the Samyukt Kisan Morcha (Non-political) led by Jagjit Singh Dallewal and Kisan Mazdoor Sangharsh Committee of Sarwan Singh Pandher – pre-empted others by announcing a "Dilli Chalo" (March to Delhi) to demand the implementation of farmers' demands.

The SKM, an umbrella organisation of 32 farmers' unions and the independent Bharatiya Kisan Union (Ugrahan), did not join in. Nor did other significant farmers' unions in Uttar Pradesh and Haryana.

Perhaps the Centre was eager to seal a deal with Dallewal and Pandher because it was apprehensive of the greater negotiating strength of the bigger unions. Perhaps Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann hoped to consolidate his party's position in Punjab by supporting this move.

The Centre began negotiations with the two farmers' organisations on February 8, well before February 13, when their protest was scheduled to begin. Three Union ministers rushed to Chandigarh to talk to the farmers' leaders instead of inviting them to Delhi. Food and Civil Supplies Minister Piyush Goyal, Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda, Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai and the Punjab Chief Minister Mann opened talks with the two organisations, keeping the main farmers' organisations out.

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Dallewal boasted to the media that this was the "first instance of a panel of ministers coming to Punjab ahead of the proposed protest". Pandher revealed that the "Punjab CM organised this meeting" and announced that a law guaranteeing MSP could be brought in the ongoing session of Parliament. Subsequent negotiations took place on February 12, 15 and 18.

On February 18, Goyal revealed the outlines of an agreement – the government would offer MSP on five crops (Tur or Arhar daal, Urad daal, Masur, Maize and Cotton) and five-year contracts to purchase these crops with no quantitative limits with government-run cooperative bodies. In return the Punjab farmers would promise crop diversification.

Goyal held a press conference to showcase the government's "innovative and out-of-the-box" solution.

But before Dallewal and Pandher could react, the SKM rejected the government's offer, saying, "It (proposal) seeks to 'divert and dilute' the farmers' demand for MSP and we will accept nothing less than the "C-2 plus 50 per cent" formula for MSP as recommended by the Swaminathan Commission Report." C2 is the actual cost of production, including rent and interest foregone on land and machinery owned by farmers -- the proposal, in effect, was that MSP should be 1.5 times the farmer's input cost.

After that, Dallewal and Pandher had no option but to reject the offer. They criticised it as "contract farming" and vowed to stay with the demand for MSP on 23 crops. They accused the government of saying things in public that differed from what was discussed in the negotiations. If there was a script, it began to meander from here.

A turning point came with the death of a 21-year-old farmer, Shubh Karan Singh, on February 21, allegedly from a bullet fired by Haryana Police at the Khanauri border with Punjab. Farmers went into a frenzy, and the leaders were out-manoeuvred. Even the SKM was forced to respond.

Holding the government "solely responsible" for the crisis and the death of the young farmer, the SKM called for a coordination committee meeting on February 22. February 23 was observed as "Black Day," and a wider consultation of farmers through a Mahapanchayat (a mega rally) was planned on March 14 at Delhi's Ramlila Ground. How these plans play out till mid-March remains to be seen.

Their unilateral move to edge out the collective leadership of the farmers had failed, and Dallewal and Pandher were given an opportunity to return to the mother organisation. The SKM constituted a six-member committee to initiate a unity dialogue with them. Youth anger will not allow them to continue negotiating with the government. With the SKM and Rakesh Tikait of the UP unit of the BKU joining the agitation, leadership is likely to slip away from Dallewal and Pandher.

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Meanwhile, the initiative may have slipped into the hands of new trailblazers. At least one of the Haryana government's drones (for lobbing teargas shells on the protestors) has been brought down by farmers flying kites; agricultural blowers are redirecting tear gas towards the police, and JCBs and other modified machines may be used to clear the barricaded highways. It is unclear how the SKM will manage to restore order to the leadership of the agitation.

Another political actor who has been put in a tough spot is Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. Like Captain Amarinder Singh, whom he ousted, he is playing both sides. In 2020, Amarinder Singh initially opposed the farmers' agitation and later tried to facilitate a backdoor settlement, escorting a pliable farmers' leader, Balbir Singh Rajewal, to meet Home Minister Amit Shah.

Mann may have been following Amarinder Singh by sponsoring the smaller farmers' organisations to settle with the Centre. Instead, the Punjab farmers are now pushing him into a confrontation with the BJP government of Haryana by asking him to file an FIR for murder against its Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar and his Home Minister Anil Vij for the protestor's death. The compensation of Rs 1 crore to the deceased's family has been rejected. Mann's role may have negative consequences for the Aam Adami Party not only in Punjab but also in Haryana and Delhi.