India and Canada must step back from the abyss

The Nijjar murder is fast unfolding into treacherous scenarios that could have tragic consequences for both nations. No one stands to gain from the ongoing face-off

Murder allegations by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau threaten to erode India's image. Attempts to profile India as a "rogue" nation will damage India's ambitions as a world leader, so recently burnished by the G20 Summit.

India's official denial of involvement in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a designated Khalistani terrorist in Canada, has put defenders of the government on the back foot, wondering whether they should continue to celebrate the triumphal arrival of a muscular India. Canada, meanwhile, is pushing its case to the point of no return. The Nijjar murder is fast unfolding into treacherous scenarios that could have tragic consequences for both nations.

If Indian intelligence officials are indeed involved in the murder, then New Delhi would do well to limit the damage. It could do so by finding a few sacrificial lambs to save its relationship with Canada and allow both countries to step back from the abyss they are staring into. Such symbolic action, done quietly, would be a small price to pay for also safeguarding India's global image. US President Joe Biden and some other leaders of the Five Eyes allies (the intelligence sharing coalition of the US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand) raised Canada's accusations with Prime Minister Modi on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit.

Daily revelations in the US and Canada make India's denial look less than credulous. Far from distancing itself from Canada's allegations, the US has affirmed its backing. Both National Security Advisor (NSA) Jack Sullivan and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken have made this clear. Sullivan called the accusations against India a "matter of concern" and said there would be no "special exemption" for such actions. Blinken urged India to cooperate with Canada's investigations, emphasising "accountability". In an interview with a Canadian TV channel, the US ambassador in Ottawa has also reiterated that it was "shared intelligence" of the Five Eyes allies that prompted Trudeau's charges in parliament.

The New York Times has now revealed that the US provided the contextual information of Indian involvement in the murder after the event. The Canadians, however, found the "smoking gun" evidence by tapping conversations of Indian diplomats in their country. Officials told the newspaper that had the US known about the plot to kill Nijjar, the US "would have immediately informed Ottawa under the intelligence agencies' 'duty to warn' doctrine."

More damning, if true, is the claim of Canadian Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc that Indian security officials did not deny the charge when they were informed of India's involvement. He revealed that director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service David Vigneault and Canada's NSA Jody Thomas visited India from August 16 to 19 and September 6 to 11 to discuss the Nijjar killing with their Indian counterparts.

India's public denial and demand for clinching evidence suggests that a dossier was either not shared with Indian officials or it did not contain incontrovertible proof against India. Its strategy of daring Canada to reveal the evidence rests on the presumption that Trudeau will back off from escalating the issue or be unable to share evidence that is with the police at this stage. It is an audacious approach, but it could backfire. Evidence, if any, could leak through friendly media into the public domain.

The other danger is that if the assassination was carried out through Indian gangsters operating in Canada, then the game will be up as soon as the Royal Canadian Mounted Police arrests the perpetrators. Indian intelligence operatives have not been averse to using criminals – recall their alleged links with the Chhota Rajan gang, whose shooters were deployed in an aborted attempt to kill Dawood Ibrahim in 2005. The prospect of Indian officials being named and the proof of a money trail leading to them could lead to red-corner notices and red faces all around. That is why the situation must be contained while it is still possible to do so.

Canada is one of the most welcoming countries to Indian immigrants and students. Ill-thought-out measures such as suspending visas for Canadian citizens and downsizing the Canadian High Commission in Delhi will only have adverse domestic consequences. Using diplomacy like a sledgehammer can do as much self-harm to the wielder as to the adversary.

It may be true that Trudeau's actions are partly guided by his electoral instincts. Still, the celebration of a muscular policy towards terrorists and "sponsors of terrorism" has also been an integral part of the ruling party's electoral strategy in India. The new national security doctrine was immortalised in Prime Minister Modi's phrases like "Yeh hamara siddhant hai ki hum ghar mai ghus kar maarenge...Main lamba intezaar nahin kar sakta (It is our principle to hit the enemy inside his territory..... I cannot wait for long)" and, "Chun-chun ke hisaab lena, ye meri fitrat hai... woh agar saatven pataal mein bhi chupe hon, toh kheench kar nikaal kar maarunga (It is my temperament to make each of them account for his misdeeds…. even if they were to hide in the deepest spot under the Earth, I will prise them out and punish them)". This declaration was made on March 5, 2019, in a speech defending the airstrikes in Balakot, Pakistan, before the last general election. The leaders of both countries will have to sacrifice the domestic advantages that would accrue from whipping up confrontation.

The Indian government will also have to step in to suspend social media accounts celebrating that "Khalistanis are dropping like flies" and warning Canadian Opposition leader Jagmeet Singh not to step out of his house. It will also have to try and moderate Indian media reports accusing the US of double standards and comparing Nijjar's killings with that of mass murderers like Osma bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri by the US.

India will have to withdraw from the schizophrenia of publicly denying while privately celebrating a muscular security policy, or it can potentially lead to both perceived and real isolation of India in the comity of nations. No one stands to gain from the ongoing face-off.