Special session of Parliament: Are election nerves setting in?

'Fruitful discussion' failed completely in the recently ended monsoon session. Will the special session discuss only 'special issues' that will initiate a celebratory consensus?

The sudden announcement of a special session of Parliament from September 18 to 22 has taken everyone by surprise. No agenda has been announced yet, leaving observers to speculate on the meaning of Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Prahlad Joshi's cryptic statement, "Amid Amrit Kal, looking forward to having fruitful discussion and debate in parliament."

"Fruitful discussion" failed completely in the recently ended monsoon session, and there is no clarity on why the special session will be any different. Will the special session discuss only "special issues" that will initiate a celebratory consensus?

The festival of Ganesh Chaturthi, falling on September 19, might be of some significance. Ganesh is the Hindu deity of new beginnings and the remover of obstacles. Conceivably, then, the special session of Parliament beginning on the 18th could move on the next day to the new Parliament building, as Ganesh Chaturthi is an auspicious day for "griha pravesh" or entering a new house accompanied by full religious ceremonial. Congratulatory resolutions to follow on the successful landing of Chardrayaan-3 on the moon and the successful completion of India's G-20 presidency under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi are likely to follow.

Celebratory events like this are necessary for the BJP and Prime Minister Modi as crucial state and Lok Sabha elections approach. International pressure has shrunk its options for dramatic mobilisation around the demonisation of Pakistan or further polarisation between Hindus and Muslims.

As Washington tries to weaken Beijing's embrace with Islamabad, it will increase pressure on India towards the normalisation of relations with Pakistan. An indication that the US wants to facilitate this is the statement by Jalil Abbas Jilani, acting foreign minister of Pakistan that the two countries should pick up discussions from where Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and General (R) Pervez Musharraf had left off. Jilani is both a former foreign secretary and Pakistan's ambassador in Washington DC, who has excellent relations with the US administration.

US elbow room with Pakistan will also improve if India holds elections in Jammu and Kashmir or restores its truncated statehood. The recent appointment of diplomat Geetika Mishra as Charge d'Affaires to the Indian mission in Islamabad may be followed by restoring full diplomatic ties and restoring trade links. With Pakistan being wooed by the US, any dramatic cross-border action or blaming a major terror strike on Pakistan will not elicit the same support as in 2019.

A clear message seems to have been conveyed to the Indian Prime Minister during the Modi-Biden Summit on June 22 about US concern over violence against minorities and democratic backsliding in India. Otherwise, it would be unthinkable that the BJP government in Haryana, headed by a former RSS pracharak to boot, would ban a religious procession by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Bajrang Dal in Muslim-dominated Nuh. The sudden bail in July to the Bhima Koregaon accused Vernon Gonsalves and Arun Ferreira may also be an indicator of the changing winds.

Unlike the Donald Trump administration, the Democratic dispensation of President Joe Biden is unlikely to back a BJP government in Delhi unless it delivers on its key concerns: condemning the Russian war on Ukraine and adopting a proactive posture on China. American concerns about China may have found some resonance instead with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's visit to the Ladakh border and his reiteration that China has taken control of land claimed by India in Ladakh. Merely days later, US-based Mexar Technologies released satellite maps to one of India's largest circulated papers, claiming it as evidence of China having built reinforced bunkers, tunnels and overground facilities to store equipment – in Aksai China area, about 70 km from the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Mexar Technologies' interpretation of the free satellite maps was published unquestioned by the newspaper. All these developments may not be accidental and could be aimed at pressuring the Modi government over the Chinese threat.

International pressure on the government might also be seen in the second tranche of revelations against the Adani Group. Gautam Adani's brother, Vinod Adani, is accused of using an investment fund to manipulate the shares of the Adani Group, alleged money laundering and violating market float rules. These investigative reports by the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), first published in London by The Financial Times and The Guardian, appear to counter attempts by the Indian regulators and financial investigative agencies to underplay or dilute their findings on the allegations of market manipulation by the Adani Group.

In short, at a time when pressure is mounting on the BJP government, reducing its strategic options for state and general elections, it needs a big event to surcharge public discourse with emotion in favour of the party and Prime Minister Modi. A special session of Parliament celebrating the moon landing, the success of G-20 and entering the new Parliament building with heightened ceremony and fanfare could achieve this.

Moreover, the special session will also give the government an opportunity to tackle the INDIA alliance, bringing the Opposition parties together. It could initiate a shock-and-awe strike against them by any one or more of the following measures: special legislation to allow 33 per cent women's reservation in legislatures, introducing a Uniform Civil Code, reservation for the most backward classes within existing reservation provisions based on recommendations of the Justice Rohini Commission, introducing a National Register of Citizens or even changing the nature of Indian democracy by moving towards a presidential system. Although the committee to examine the proposal for "one nation, one election" is not expected to submit its report in two weeks, a discussion may nonetheless begin on the issue in the special session.

Any of these moves to decimate and divide the Opposition carries the downside of sending a message about the nervousness of the government. As a wag remarked, "Could it be that from Rahu Kalam (inauspicious time), which prevented new beginnings earlier, politics might now be entering Rahul Kalam (Rahul's era)?"