Taiwan's elections and the Indo-Pacific

The diplomatic responses to Lai Ching-te's victory underscore the challenge and importance of maintaining the status quo in the region

Taiwan elections are over, and Lai Ching-te, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is the winner, though by a thin margin. He won about 40 per cent of the vote, while the rival candidate, Hou Yu-ih, from the Kuomintang (KMT) party, won 33 per cent. The surprise was the unusual 26 per cent of the vote garnered by Ko Wen-je of a relatively new party, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), set up only in 2019.

Despite the narrow margin of victory, the DPP has achieved a historical first of winning three presidential elections in a row since electoral democracy was introduced in Taiwan in 1996. Its platform of practical, if not juridical, independence — rejecting China’s assertion of sovereignty and eventual unification, even by force, if necessary — continues to have traction among the island’s populace.

The other two parties accept the so-called 1992 consensus, reached between the then KMT-led government and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). It declares that both entities across the Taiwan Strait accept that there is only one China, but one refers to it as the PRC and the other as the Republic of China. The DPP does not accept this; for this reason, China interrupted cross-strait dialogue and other channels of engagement when the DPP won the elections in 2016. China regards the rejection of the 1992 consensus as a move towards declaring independence. In advance of the January 13 elections, China had warned that a DPP victory may lead towards war and that Lai Ching-te was “a troublemaker.”

What has been China’s reaction to the DPP victory? The Taiwan Affairs Office of the PRC declared the result as reflecting “the mainstream opinion on the island”. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the results “cannot change the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is a part of China”. Chinese commentary has also drawn attention to the DPP’s loss in the legislative elections held concurrently with the presidential poll. The DPP fell short of a majority, securing 51 seats, while the KMT won 52 and the TPP 8.

These initial Chinese reactions are relatively restrained. An aggressive fallout in terms of heightened military activity in the Taiwan Strait is not expected. China may prefer to work through the Opposition parties, which favour closer cross-strait relations, to limit the DPP’s room for manoeuvre. However, neither the KMT nor the TPP will be able to advance China’s unification agenda without losing popular support. They too must support the status quo, which is the preference of the overwhelming majority of the Taiwanese population.

The US has welcomed the elections as a demonstration of Taiwan’s vibrant democracy but has also reiterated that it does not support the island’s independence. It emphasises the need to maintain peace and security in the Taiwan Strait. The US government has sent Stephen Hadley, former national security advisor under the Republican Bush administration (2005-08), and John Steinberg, deputy secretary under the Democratic Obama administration (2009-11), as non-official envoys to offer congratulations to the President-elect and to have talks with President Tsai Ing-wen. On Mr Hadley’s meeting with Ms Tsai, her office gave the following readout of his message:

“Taiwan’s democracy sets a strong example for the world and is a democratic success story based on transparency, the rule of law, respect for human rights and freedom. I am pleased to have the opportunity to meet with President Tsai to reaffirm that the US’s commitment to Taiwan is rock-solid, principled and bi-partisan and that the US will stand with our friends”.

This is truly an unusual instance of a non-official delivering an assurance on behalf of a state!

Mr Steinberg was quoted as delivering another equally important message— that any “unilateral change” must be avoided. In other words, Taiwan should not attempt to change its political status quo, and neither should China. This will be conveyed to China as proof that the US rejects Taiwan independence.

Has this intricate balancing act convinced the Chinese? So far one has not seen any Chinese criticism of the visit of these non-official envoys. This adds to the expectation that China does not, for the present, plan to up the ante. The revival of senior level official and military engagement between the US and China is likely to be sustained.

Japan has also congratulated Taiwan on the successful demonstration of its democratic polity and has celebrated the shared values between the two sides. The Japanese Foreign Minister said that “Taiwan is an extremely crucial partner and an important friend with which it shares fundamental values”. She declared Japan’s commitment to enhancing their “working relationship on the non-governmental basis”.

Both Japan and South Korea, while avoiding addressing the status of Taiwan, have nevertheless begun to project the situation in the Taiwan Strait as a matter of international security and global concern. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has declared that Taiwan Strait, like North Korea, is a “global issue”.

Taiwan is a major trading power and the world’s 16th largest economy. More importantly, it is the source of 92 per cent of the world’s most advanced logic chips and it fabricates 55 per cent of the semiconductors embedded in vehicles, laptops, tablets and smartphones all over the world. Any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would affect this critical digital supply chain and the nearly 60 per cent of global maritime trade that traverses the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. While Taiwan is an issue for China its fate also concerns the world’s major powers.

India has a stake in the maintenance of peace and security in the Indo-Pacific, with Taiwan at its pivot. India maintains non-official relations with Taiwan but recently the density of trade and investment relations between the two countries has expanded significantly. In August 2022, India for the first time criticised China for its “militarisation of the Taiwan Strait”. This followed a more anodyne statement earlier which did not explicitly name China but called on “all sides to exercise restraint, de-escalate tensions, avoid unilateral actions to change the status quo and maintain peace and stability in the region.”

The projection of security of the Taiwan Strait as an issue of international peace and security poses a challenge to China, which insists that Taiwan is its domestic issue. India has shifted its stand on Taiwan and has lately stopped reaffirming the one-China principle. Its stance is more aligned with its partners in the Quad.

The writer is a former foreign secretary and an honorary fellow, Centre for Policy Research