The game is on

If truth be told, we got our biggest headline of Verdict 2024 when the trends became established just after noon and news broke that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had called Chandrababu Naidu. Sharad Pawar followed with calls to both Naidu and Nitish Kumar.

We will obviously take the point further and first list the three outcomes that follow. And then, before we go into a deeper analysis of these and other takeaways, list four rants too.

The three outcomes first.

The first, that Indian politics has returned to its default post-1989 pattern of coalitions after a decade’s interregnum. Second, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Narendra Modi looks beatable. And third, the Congress, with a tally close to 100, has revived. A short break for my rants now.

*  All those who said India’s democracy is dead and buried, over, that we are no-hopers under fascist rule, please sit down, take and drink Kool-Aid. You can gulp a beta blocker with it if you think you need it. But consult your doctor first.

* All those who said India’s voters are now such polarised, fried-in-desi-ghee Hindutva nuts that they will keep voting against Muslims, and thereby for Narendra Modi, please say sorry to the 642 million people who went out to vote in an almighty heatwave. Also check that the BJP is trailing in Ayodhya (Faizabad).

* The third is the most important and I should have probably put it first. Promise yourself in future never to undermine the credibility of the election system in India: Whether it is the electronic voting machines, the institution of the Election Commission and the election commissioners, the  personnel who toil at making this marvel possible. Peacefully, calmly and credibly. The Indian election system is a global, public common good. Never knock it. For perspective, held at the same time as India’s, the Mexican elections saw 37 candidates assassinated. Not one was harmed here. Mexico’s per capita income is nearly four times India’s.

* And the last, a request to bankers, investors, fund managers as this is also simultaneously published in Business Standard. Look at the market convulsions. Please promise, especially those millions who trust you with their hard-earned money, never to let your voting preferences determine your actions on the markets. Political analysis, I agree, has a heady sex appeal. But it carries risks to your reputations and your investors’ money. So leave it to people like us. We aren’t as smart as you, but we have that one attribute an innocent and impassioned may not: Healthy political scepticism. The most appalling and scary phenomenon I noted in this campaign was fund houses and brokerages going out on election yatras and writing copious reports promising more than 300 for the BJP. That was your wish as voters. Your investors are paying for it now.

Rants over, we return to politics. This verdict signals the return of normal politics. The stage is now set for the next battles: The state elections of Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand. Just after that, hold your breath, Jammu & Kashmir, where the BJP got only two out of the six. For each, this result has a dire warning for the BJP. In Maharashtra, its number is less than half of what it was in 2019 although it had one more ally (Nationalist Congress Party and Shiv Sena).

More important, both the allies, or the breakaway factions it prised away from the originals, are now dead in the water. The Maharashtra voter has made it clear that she sees the originals as the real Shiv Sena and NCP. The BJP is now in an unfamiliar situation of having to shore up its own defences as the MLAs on Shinde-Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-NCP weigh a home-coming threat to the BJP.

If Maharashtra is the biggest prize a rejuvenated Opposition would seek, Haryana is a direct threat to the BJP. In 2019, it swept all 10 seats in the state with a 58.2 per cent vote. Now it’s lost five to a rising Congress. The last-minute chief minister change bombed. The prospect of losing a state next to Delhi would worry the BJP.

In the third major state headed for polls, Jharkhand, the equation has now changed. Against the sweep of 2019, when it won 11 out of 14 seats, the BJP has now lost three, all to the Congress-JMM coalition, all in tribal areas.

 If this momentum continues, the coalition will see a chance of bucking anti-incumbency. Of course the BJP will probably review the wisdom of keeping Hemant Soren in jail.

These three state elections will be the lung-opener as a new Indian Political League begins after Parliament is constituted. Pace will be relentless as just the capital. Again, the wisdom of keeping Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia in jail will need to be reviewed. Linked to that, what does the new government do with the two jailed “radicals” — Engineer Rashid and Amritpal Singh — who’ve won with huge majorities in Baramulla and Khadoor Sahib, respectively!

From politics, we shift to governance. First of all, there is zero doubt that a BJP-led coalition will have Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. But this won’t be a BJP but an NDA government, and Cabinet.

This hasn’t been the case for a decade. In fact, most of the time the two Modi governments did not even have an NDA Cabinet minister besides the late Ram Vilas Paswan. Doctrine of necessity and survival will now make the BJP concede spaces to allies, especially Chandrababu Naidu. Prepare also for renewed demands from both Naidu and Nitish for special status for their states. They now have leverage.

Odisha is much more a consolation win for the BJP. It is their first win in the state and also with a clear majority. For one seen as mostly a “heartland” party, it is also another coastal state, the first in the east. But its ambitious southern march is stopped, favourite target Mamata Banerjee is stronger and the losses in Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya threaten it with a Congress revival there.

Actually, the upshot of this verdict can be stated in just two words: Game on.

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