The inside story of two U-turns

Civil society continues to be in the throes of handwringing, angst, and finger-pointing at Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s actions earlier this week. All the criticism is directed against Mr Kumar. No one thinks any blame should accrue to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is equally guilty of a U-turn. In fact, if you look closely, as chief minister, Mr Kumar is still very much in the same place. It is other actors who have shifted positions. The night the change-over happened, mockery was evident all over the social media. A comment entreated the BJP to make up its mind quickly on whether it was supporting Mr Kumar “so that we can decide whether there is jungle raj in Bihar or not”.

The inside story of why Mr Kumar did what he did is coming out gradually. A discussion on the digital news and opinion platform Satya Hindi brought forth some interesting facts. Mr Kumar had been tactfully broaching the issue of advancing Assembly elections in Bihar with his erstwhile alliance partner, Lalu Prasad and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), for some time now. The two partners had sought different things from the alliance and the tension was evident for weeks. Mr Prasad wanted his son Tejashwi to take over as chief minister as soon as possible, ensuring a seal on Mr Kumar’s full and final settlement with a succession plan in place.

Mr Kumar has been staving off this pressure for nearly six months [knowing that the minute he gave up chief ministership, one half of his party, the Janata Dal(U), would join the RJD and the other the BJP]. Instead, he had been telling the RJD that proposals like the caste census, along with the social alliance that the Mahagathbandhan of the RJD, Janata Dal(U), Left parties, and Congress represented, could serve them well in an Assembly poll. Who knows, it could extend to gains in the Lok Sabha elections as well. The time to strike was now. A cabinet meeting to discuss this ended in 12 minutes. The RJD turned it down.

The BJP wasn’t twiddling its thumbs, either. Its antenna went up in October, when, during a function at Motihari, attended by President Droupadi Murmu, Mr Kumar hailed his long friendship with BJP leaders. In rustic language, Mr Kumar said from the podium, gesturing towards BJP leaders also seated there: “No matter where we are, we will be friends. As long as I am alive, my friendship with those in the BJP will continue.” In December, then minister Sanjay Jha was hailed by Union Home Minister Amit Shah for the quality of his presentation at the Eastern Zonal Council meeting in Patna in December. Mr Jha has become one of the key interlocutors in the BJP-JD(U) back and forth.

At about 11 pm on Saturday, January 27, BJP leader and now Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary issued a statement. It was all speculation, he said, no one had withdrawn support and no one had offered support. For some hours, it appeared that the JD(U) and RJD — Mr Kumar and Mr Prasad — had kissed and made up, cutting the BJP out. However, the statement was likely tactical. For the next day, Mr Kumar handed in his resignation to the governor. Within hours, the BJP moved into the space vacated by the RJD. At 72, Mr Kumar has proved he is more agile than Tejashwi, half his age.

In the past, an alliance between the JD(U) and BJP has not been incident-free mainly because Mr Kumar has had to view the BJP both as an ally and an opponent, especially in his second term as chief minister (2005-10), when the JD(U) made a conscious effort to reach out to the poorer Muslims in the state. When the BJP mooted a suggestion that singing “Vande Mataram” be made compulsory in government schools, Mr Kumar shot it down immediately. On the other hand, when a team came to Bihar to review if the Sachar committee’s recommendations on uplifting the Muslim community had been implemented, Mr Kumar refused to meet them, saying he needed no nudging in this direction.

This time, the BJP will likely have more say in government decisions. The next battle in Bihar could be between Samrat Choudhary and Tejashwi Yadav. Arbitrage may have run its course.