Time to adapt: India's climate efforts lack alignment with urgent needs

The COP29 meetings have quite unambiguously revealed that the developed world will not pay for its sins. Consequently, developing countries in general—and India more so—will neither receive aid nor subsidised credit on the scales required. For this commentator, what has happened was entirely predictable. Aid on the scales required would not have been politically feasible anywhere in the developed world today. At best, they could have promised substantial credit facilities, which would have meant the Global South being straddled with inordinately high levels of debt. Anyhow, the transition-related debt problem will now not be faced. Instead, we now need to focus on the basic problem, namely, how to survive and prosper in an era where climate changes far more rapidly than we had hoped.

 

The challenge is not small. Evidence suggests that both the extent of change and the associated income losses are likely to be higher than expected. Climate models indicate that South Asia will be among the most highly impacted regions. It is now obvious that while average temperature increases will far exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, temperatures in specific locations on certain days will be much higher than we are used to. Therefore, the recent experience of 50 degrees Celsius-plus in North India was just a glimpse of what could happen much more widely and frequently. 

 

Moreover, recent research reveals that the income impacts of climate change are extremely high, much more than previously envisaged. Studies on agriculture have already found a strong causality between high temperature anomalies and reduced food production across a wide range of products. Informal sector incomes are also now being found to be highly affected because of the health and effort impacts of high temperatures. Broadly summarising some of these studies, there are large negative productivity and income impacts of high temperatures, percentage falls can be in high single or double digits for each degree of temperature increase. 

 

The UN system has been trying to catalyse action on climate change for some time now, supporting many different initiatives including the creation of National Adaptation Plans in many countries. India, too, put together the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). However, the NAPCC does not focus on adaptation in the sense of protecting people from income losses, enhancing resilience, or enabling them to adjust to a hotter world with more volatile weather patterns. 

 

The NAPCC has eight components or missions, which include greater solar power, improved energy efficiency, energy efficient urban planning, water use efficiency, Himalayan ecosystem improvement, forest cover increase, and enhanced knowledge capacity on climate change. There is nothing wrong with any of these missions, though some of these did not deliver. The more important issue, however, is that we need to protect incomes, enhance resilience and help change occupational and lifestyle practices. Though well-meaning, the NAPCC will not solve the emerging problem. Most Indian states have also put together Heat Action Plans (HAPs), but these are guided by the National Disaster Management Authority, whose natural focus is on creating event-based mechanisms. In other words, the HAPs are more focused on addressing the problem of extreme heat episodes, much like the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) is for pollution. And just as GRAP is unable to address the more systemic pollution issues, HAPs fail in addressing the adaptation challenge.  India’s key instruments to address climate change are misaligned with what is required for protecting itself. 

 

To understand the challenge better, consider the losses from failing to adapt to a hotter, more volatile climate. Productivity declines will affect not just agriculture and livestock, but many occupations including trade, transport, construction, and informal manufacturing; homemakers will be hugely impacted as well. Occupations where production is outdoors will be impacted. Even indoor work will be affected if adequate cross-ventilation or cooling is lacking. Education effectiveness will also be impacted, and as will health care delivery. When the problem is so large, where do we start?

 

Rather than do everything, we need to focus on a few things that matter the most. Further, we need to do this through implementation mechanisms that don’t take years to build and are already known to work successfully. I focus on two key ones here.

 

The first challenge is protecting people from extreme heat. This involves addressing the rising temperatures in homes, offices, schools, and public spaces such as footpaths, informal markets, and chaupals. Heat islands can cause immense damage to life and health. A range of initiatives is required, including the adoption of cooler roofs, improved cross-ventilation, and increased use of plants, trees, and vines in public spaces to mitigate heat island effects. Water availability is another essential component, and, therefore, the Jal Jeevan Mission’s (JJM) ambit needs to expand to include heat stress-related objectives in rural areas. Moreover, either the JJM itself or another similar entity, perhaps a “Jal Taap Mission” will need to be established to address urban heat stress. Such a mission would need to work closely with appropriate local bodies  and communities to raise awareness about heat-related risks and implement solutions to combat heat islands effectively.

 

The second major class of issues are related to agriculture, and here the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard) is already playing an active role, including funding of research on resilient livestock and seeds, innovative practices, and also scaling them. While Nabard is technically not a government department, its networks across agriculture-related manufacturing, research institutions, trade and other services can enable it to bring the ecosystem together for what is required for agriculture to transition. India will also need to build a comprehensive food storage ecosystem — greater weather volatility will mean greater agriculture output volatility, and more volatile prices. Again, Nabard with its financial strengths can be the right nodal body to take this forward.

 

Of course, much more is required, but rather than falling for the habit of ticking all boxes while conceptualising and then under-delivering, as the global order has done, India needs to identify and work upon things that matter the most. And for now, that means protecting people and farms from high temperatures and volatile weather.

 

And what about mitigating emissions? India is already on that path via Panchamrit and the NAPCC.  These efforts need not stop, just the focus on new initiatives must shift towards adapting to a hotter, more unpredictable climate.

 

The author heads the Centre for Social and Economic Progress