US visa threat before B'desh elections: Warning to faltering democracies

The US would now restrict visas for any Bangladeshi citizen who is believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in that country

In an unusual move, the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, on May 24, announced a "Visa Policy to Promote Democratic Elections in Bangladesh". The US would now restrict visas for any Bangladeshi citizen believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in that country. This would include current and former Bangladeshi officials, members of all political parties, law enforcement officers, the judiciary, and security services. The US has clearly put Bangladesh on watch as the country's next general election, due in January 2024, approaches.
 

The actions undermining the elections have been widely defined to "include vote rigging, voter intimidation, the use of violence to prevent people from exercising their right to freedoms of association and peaceful assembly, and the use of measures designed to prevent political parties, voters, civil society, or the media from disseminating their views."
 

State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller has clarified that the US was "signalling to anyone in Bangladesh who may be considering actions that would interfere with the ability of the Bangladeshi people to make their voices heard that we are watching." Although no sanctions have been imposed, Miller did not rule them out in the future.

The last two general elections, held in January 2014 and December 2018, were not considered free and fair by the global community. However, India has firmly supported the tainted victories of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ruling Awami League (AL).

The 2014 general election was boycotted by the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and several smaller parties because they wanted elections under a neutral caretaker government. As a result, more than half the seats -- 153 out of a total of 300 directly contested seats -- in the Jatiyo Sangsad (Parliament) were won uncontested by the AL.

The election boycott and protests led to violent clashes between the Opposition and government forces and the arrest of Opposition leaders. Among them was BNP chairperson Begum Khalida Zia. The government's "joint forces" comprising the notorious Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), Border Guards Bangladesh (BRB) and the police were held responsible by Human Rights Watch for extrajudicial killings and destruction of private property.

India's role was controversial in 2014 as there were allegations that it arm-twisted General (Retd) H M Ershad, head of the Jatiya Party, to participate as the token opposition party. Supporting a flawed election and the AL tarnished India's image.

The BNP did participate in the next general election of 2018 but alleged massive vote rigging. The Opposition claimed the involvement of the police and civilian administration in stuffing ballot boxes on the eve of the poll. A BBC reporter claimed he saw a stuffed ballot box in Chittagong even before polling began. Although AL swept the elections, bagging 260 out of 300 seats, the majority of the world saw it as a flawed election. India remained an exception.

Its new visa policy suggests that the US has taken on the task of promoting free and fair elections in Bangladesh on its own. The fear of US visa denial will impact the Bangladeshi political elite and officialdom, who have played an important role in legitimising the country's flawed democracy. The US is an important trade partner, the largest destination of its garment and software exports and the largest source of FDI. It is also the preferred destination for education, work and residence. Bangladeshi students in US universities tripled from 3,314 in 2011-2012 to 10,597 in 2021-2022.

Significantly, Secretary of State Blinken's tweet announcing the policy said that the visa policy would also apply to immediate family members of those found complicit in undermining free and fair elections. This means that children studying in the US or residing there on green cards will have to return home after summary cancellation of their visas if a parent is found guilty of subverting the election process. This will also apply to the civilian administration and the police, who have been allegedly used to stuff ballot boxes, the army and the paramilitary forces, like RAB and BGB, which have been used to frighten the Opposition in the past.

The US policy shift also seems to be aimed at reforming political processes in general. These include citizens' and political parties' right to peaceful assembly, safeguarding civil society and ensuring free media. Opposition parties have found it increasingly hard to organise public rallies and meetings as they are immediately targeted by the ruling party's youth wing and the police. AL leaders are known to have called upon their cadre to prevent public meetings by the Opposition and to provoke violence against opposition leaders.

The voice of civil society organisations in Bangladesh has also been attenuated, with the government declaring that only "constructive criticism" was welcome. The draconian Digital Security Act and Official Secrets Act are routinely used against journalists critical of government policies or for reporting on corruption, price rise and illegal business activities. A popular newspaper, Prothom Alo, has been particularly targeted, with Prime Minister Hasina dubbing it "an enemy of (the) Awami League, democracy and the people of Bangladesh."

The US move may be unprecedented, but it is not unwelcome. Some in Bangladesh have already read the victory of 70-year-old Zayeda Khatun over AL's official candidate for Mayor in the Ghazipur City Corporation, held just a day after the US visa policy announcement, as proof of its effectiveness. Others are not convinced it would work quite so nimbly.

General elections are scheduled in 24 countries in 2024 – from India, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, Syria and South Africa to Burkina Faso and Botswana. Of these, the US State Department may have singled out Bangladesh for warning because of persistent allegations that two consecutive general elections were hijacked. Nevertheless, it will be a signal to the other faltering democracies in the region where allegations of election manipulation have caused public faith in the democratic process to diminish.