Viksit@2047: Achieving India's vision needs focus on core priorities

India's ambition may seem out of reach, but two and a half decades provide ample time to prepare- if it gets its focus right

Is Viksit@2047 possible at all? India at a per capita income of $2,390 in 2022 was towards the lower end of the middle income range that spans from $1,136 to $13,846. The range is obviously very high and, therefore, it will take some time for India to cross into the high-income segment. Most current estimates of feasible long-term growth for the country tend to be around 6 to 7 per cent. This is clearly not adequate for the Viksit status envisaged for 2047. While challenges from climate change will further hinder achieving this tough target, opportunities — such as those arising from technological changes — will, however, support higher growth.

Of what use is a goal if it is not ambitious? And of what use is ambition if not achievable? So yes, at current levels of growth Viksit@2047 seems unachievable, but two and a half decades is a long time. Over time, we will have better human capital, access to better technologies, and greater knowledge.  Therefore, rather than lowering the target, we need to prepare for higher growth in the future while prioritising elements that just cannot be delayed.

Note that in an ideal world, India needs to achieve many things, and the sooner we do that, the better it would be. Well-known among them include controlling the fiscal deficit, improving human capital, and implementing reforms related to land, labour and capital markets. While all of these, and a few others, are important, I ask the following question: What must the government do now that cannot be delayed even by a year? These, obviously, have to be changes that take time to play out, and after some muddling through, I narrow it down to two key areas of focus.

First on my list is primary education. Labour productivity of an average worker in 2047 would have to be substantially higher than it is today. There is, however, a belief among some that spending an extra rupee on primary education yields little due to the many inefficiencies in delivery at the state and local government levels.  Though the belief is not entirely unjustified, holding back primary schooling investments is not an option.  As we go about figuring out how we can improve delivery, we need to immediately allocate more funds for additional teachers, classrooms, facilities, teacher training, and suchlike. We also need to enhance primary schools by adding art, craft, music and other extra-curricular activities under a joyful learning framework because a high-productivity worker of tomorrow will also need to be a creative worker.  By using digital technologies, we can enable enhanced teacher and student monitoring, ongoing training, course correction, following each child’s progress, among other things. A mission-mode approach to primary schooling is not just possible, it has now become critical. 

Giving higher priority to getting primary schools right today is more important than building more IITs and universities. Even current priorities such as skilling will be much better enabled if the child has gone through a high-quality primary education.  Arguably, without quality primary schooling, no amount of expenditure or budgetary incentives on skilling will work at the scale required. Let us for a moment imagine that India achieves developed country status, but without a commensurate improvement in labour productivity. What kind of an economy would that be? There are many countries across the world today with high levels of inequality that could not broad-base the fruits of progress. A poorly educated India would be precisely that. Therefore, India has no choice — it must solve the challenges of primary education, and it must do so now. 

The second is agriculture warehousing and logistics. Across South Asia extreme climate events have caused havoc, leading to macroeconomic imbalances, and these are only going to increase as we go along. Within India, food inflation has not been easy to manage. Compared to China, which grew at a much faster rate than India even aspired to, food inflation has typically been higher in India. 

Governments intervene in agriculture in both countries, but one key difference is that China has been more adept at managing its food supply. There is nothing preventing India from achieving similarly superior management of agricultural produce. What it needs, however, is a large network of agricultural storage and warehousing facilities, including cold storage. To these, we could also add a superior logistics mechanism, but the necessary condition is extensive storage facilities.

The unfortunate yet successful protests against opening up agricultural markets should not be seen as a barrier that prevents progress in the agriculture sector. Farmers, whether dependent on arhatiyas or not, will universally benefit from accessible storage facilities. These facilities will help reduce dependence on arhatiyas, empower farmers, and decrease volatility in food prices. Moreover, more progressive farmers will be better positioned to shift toward higher-value food products, many of which are perishable, with the presence of a wide network of such facilities. Cold storage will, therefore, become increasingly important, enabling willing farmers to move away from their dependency on cereals.

But why invest in warehousing and agri logistics now? Why can’t we wait another 10 years? First, the nature of farming in India is such that it takes years for new technologies, products and processes to spread.  Second, climate change is not waiting for anyone —we need to be prepared for multiple extreme weather events occurring simultaneously across India. And third, since legal changes could not break the status quo that is throttling agricultural progress, it is time to use technology and infrastructure to achieve the same.

As mentioned before, while many challenges will continue to emerge, so too will opportunities. Energy transition will progressively get cheaper with improvements in renewable energy and storage technologies, the ongoing digital revolution will enhance productivity and efficiency in many domains, and this list of growing future opportunities is a long one. Even the transition related to climate change will throw up immense benefits. Take, for instance, the movement away from fossil fuels, which currently results in a net import bill for India of $100 to $150 billion (depending on volatile petroleum prices) and is expected to grow in the near future. However, with the rollout of electric vehicles, by the middle of the next decade, this bill will start to decrease. To my knowledge, the full economic benefits of this shift haven’t been worked out in detail, but the possibilities are immense. 

To sum up, Viksit@2047 may currently seem out of reach, but many opportunities lie ahead, and India should prepare itself for them. While it does so, it needs to ensure that basic education and agriculture warehousing and logistics are addressed as immediate priorities.  Of course, achieving more would be even better.

The author heads CSEP Research Foundation. The views are personal